Table 2.
The performance of baseline PH-FRAT against the actual fall occurrence within the first six months of PH-FRAT assessment
| Risk score cut-off 14 | Risk score cut-off 10 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PH-FRAT Predicted Falls | Observed Falls | No. of falls |
Resident days |
Observed Falls | No. of falls |
Resident days |
||
| Fallers | Non-fallers | Fallers | Non-fallers | |||||
| Fallers | 627 | 388 | 2512 | 147,454 | 1626 | 1559 | 5570 | 446,080 |
| Non-fallers | 1782 | 3091 | 4975 | 673,298 | 783 | 1920 | 1917 | 374,672 |
| Total | 2409 | 3479 | 7487 | 820,752 | 2409 | 3479 | 7487 | 820,752 |
| Standard method | ||||||||
| AUROC (95% CI) | 0.57 (0.56–0.59) | 0.61 (0.60–0.63) | ||||||
| Sensitivity (95% CI) | 26.0 (24.3–27.8) | 67.5 (65.6–69.4) | ||||||
| Specificity (95% CI) | 88.8 (87.8–89.9) | 55.2 (53.5–56.9) | ||||||
| PPV (95% CI) | 61.8 (58.7–64.8) | 51.1 (49.3–52.8) | ||||||
| NPV (95% CI) | 63.4 (62.1–64.8) | 71.0 (69.3–72.7) | ||||||
| Youden’s index | 0.148 | 0.227 | ||||||
| Event rate method | ||||||||
| SensitivityER (95% CI) | 33.6 (30.3–36.8) | 74.4 (71.9–76.9) | ||||||
| SpecificityER (95% CI) | 82.0 (80.9–83.1) | 45.6 (44.2–47.1) | ||||||
| Youden’s indexER | 0.156 | 0.201 | ||||||
AUROC Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics curve, PPV Positive Predictive Value, NPV Negative Predictive Value. AUROC interpretation: poor (0.5–0.6), sufficient (0.6–0.7), good (0.7–0.8), very good (0.8–0.9) and excellent discrimination (0.9–1.0). Youden’s index ranges from 0 (no discrimination) to 1 (perfect discrimination)