Table 3.
The performance of baseline PH-FRAT assessments compared to predict actual fall occurrence for respite and permanent residents within the first six months of PH-FRAT assessment
| Risk score cut-off 14 | Risk score cut-off 10 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permanent (n = 4794) | Respite (n = 1094) | Permanent (n = 4794) | Respite (n = 1094) | |
| Standard method | ||||
| AUROC (95% CI) | 0.57 (0.56–0.58) | 0.55 (0.52–0.58) | 0.61 (0.59–0.62) | 0.61 (0.57–0.65) |
| Sensitivity (95% CI) | 26.9 (25.1–28.8) | 16.0 (11.1–21.9) | 68.1 (66.1–70.1) | 60.3 (53.1–67.2) |
| Specificity (95% CI) | 87.0 (85.7–88.3) | 94.0 (92.2–95.5) | 53.0 (51.1–54.9) | 61.4 (58.2–64.6) |
| PPV (95% CI) | 66.1 (60.9–67.2) | 36.5 (26.3–47.6) | 55.5 (53.6–57.3) | 25.2 (21.3–29.4) |
| NPV (95% CI) | 58.1 (56.5–59.7) | 83.8 (81.4–86.1) | 65.9 (63.9–68.0) | 87.8 (85–90.2) |
| Youden’s index | 0.139 | 0.100 | 0.211 | 0.217 |
| Event rate method | ||||
| SensitivityER (95% CI) | 33.7 (30.4–37.0) | 30.8 (15.6–45.9) | 74.6 (72.0–77.2) | 71.3 (61.9–80.7) |
| SpecificityER (95% CI) | 81.3 (80.1–82.4) | 91.6 (89.1–94.1) | 44.5 (43.0–46.0) | 59.9 (55.5–64.2) |
| Youden’s indexER | 0.150 | 0.224 | 0.191 | 0.312 |
AUROC Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics curve, PPV Positive Predictive Value, NPV Negative Predictive Value. AUROC interpretation: poor (0.5–0.6), sufficient (0.6–0.7), good (0.7–0.8), very good (0.8–0.9) and excellent discrimination (0.9–1.0). Youden’s index ranges from 0 (no discrimination) to 1 (perfect discrimination)