Table 5. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy for different cut-offs in predicting poor outcome at 6 months after cardiac arrest.
| Model | Cut-off | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | Accuracy (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROLOGUE | ≥0.1 | 98.4 (97.4–99.4) | 31.5 (25.7–37.4) | 77.1 (74.0–80.1) | 89.4 (82.9–96.0) | 78.4 (75.5–81.2) |
| ≥0.2 | 96.3 (94.7–97.8) | 48.1 (41.8–54.4) | 81.3 (78.3–84.2) | 84.7 (78.6–90.7) | 81.8 (79.2–84.5) | |
| ≥0.4 | 94.3 (92.4–96.2) | 65.1 (59.1–71.2) | 86.3 (83.6–89.1) | 83.1 (77.7–88.4) | 85.6 (83.1–88.0) | |
| ≥0.6 | 89.9 (87.4–92.4) | 78.0 (72.8–83.2) | 90.5 (88.1–92.9) | 76.7 (71.4–82.0) | 86.3 (83.9–88.7) | |
| ≥0.8 | 78.9 (75.5–82.2) | 88.8 (84.8–92.8) | 94.3 (92.2–96.4) | 64.3 (59.1–69.4) | 81.8 (79.2–84.5) | |
| ≥0.9 | 64.3 (60.3–68.3) | 96.7 (94.4–98.9) | 97.8 (96.4–99.3) | 53.7 (49.0–58.4) | 74.0 (71.0–77.0) | |
| ≥0.95 | 51.0 (46.8–55.1) | 98.8 (97.4–100.0) | 99.0 (97.8–100.0) | 46.3 (42.0–50.6) | 65.3 (62.0–68.6) | |
| TTM risk score | >10 | 95.2 (93.4–97.0) | 60.6 (54.4–66.8) | 84.9 (82.2–87.7) | 84.4 (79.0–89.8) | 84.8 (82.3–87.3) |
| >13 | 87.6 (84.8–90.3) | 79.7 (74.6–84.7) | 91.0 (88.5–93.4) | 73.3 (67.9–78.6) | 85.2 (82.7–87.7) | |
| >16 | 71.4 (67.7–75.1) | 91.3 (87.7–94.8) | 95.0 (93.0–97.1) | 57.7 (52.8–62.7) | 77.4 (74.5–80.3) | |
| CAHP score | >150 | 88.1 (85.4–90.8) | 77.2 (71.9–82.5) | 90.0 (87.5–92.5) | 73.5 (68.1–79.0) | 84.8 (82.3–87.3) |
| >200 | 55.1 (51.0–59.2) | 95.4 (92.8–98.1) | 96.6 (94.6–98.6) | 47.6 (43.2–52.1) | 67.2 (63.9–70.4) | |
| Prediction score by Aschauer et al. | >12 | 95.4 (93.6–97.1) | 56.8 (50.6–63.1) | 83.8 (80.9–86.6) | 84.0 (78.4–89.7) | 83.8 (81.3–86.4) |
| >22 | 83.7 (80.6–86.7) | 78.8 (73.7–84.0) | 90.2 (87.7–92.8) | 67.4 (61.9–72.8) | 82.2 (79.6–84.9) | |
| >30 | 62.2 (58.2–66.2) | 92.1 (88.7–95.5) | 94.9 (92.6–97.1) | 51.0 (46.3–55.7) | 71.1 (68.0–74.3) | |
| >40 | 29.8 (26.1–33.6) | 97.9 (96.1–99.7) | 97.1 (94.6–99.6) | 37.4 (33.6–41.2) | 50.2 (46.8–53.7) | |
| NULL-PLEASE score | >0 | 98.6 (97.6–99.6) | 17.0 (12.3–21.8) | 73.5 (70.4–76.7) | 83.7 (73.3–94.0) | 74.1 (71.1–77.2) |
| >1 | 96.8 (95.3–98.3) | 35.7 (29.6–41.7) | 77.9 (74.8–80.9) | 82.7 (75.4–90.0) | 78.5 (75.6–81.3) | |
| >2 | 95.4 (93.6–97.1) | 54.4 (48.1–60.6) | 83.0 (80.1–85.9) | 83.4 (77.6–89.3) | 83.1 (80.5–85.7) | |
| >3 | 91.8 (89.6–94.1) | 65.1 (59.1–71.2) | 86.0 (83.3–88.8) | 77.3 (71.6–83.1) | 83.8 (81.3–86.4) | |
| >4 | 86.5 (83.7–89.3) | 76.3 (71.0–81.7) | 89.5 (86.9–92.1) | 70.8 (65.2–76.3) | 83.5 (80.9–86.0) | |
| >5 | 75.7 (72.1–79.2) | 85.9 (81.5–90.3) | 92.6 (90.2–95.0) | 60.2 (55.0–65.3) | 78.7 (75.9–81.6) | |
| >6 | 62.7 (58.7–66.7) | 91.3 (87.7–94.8) | 94.4 (92.1–96.7) | 51.2 (46.4–55.9) | 71.3 (68.1–74.4) | |
| >7 | 45.8 (41.7–49.9) | 96.3 (93.9–98.7) | 96.6 (94.5–98.8) | 43.2 (39.0–47.4) | 60.9 (57.6–64.3) | |
| 5-R score | ≤0 | 0.7 (0–1.4) | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) | 30.1 (26.9–33.3) | 30.5 (27.3–33.7) |
| ≤1 | 14.4 (11.5–17.3) | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) | 33.3 (29.9–36.8) | 40.0 (36.7–43.4) | |
| ≤2 | 41.4 (37.3–45.5) | 98.3 (96.7–100.0) | 98.3 (96.7–100.0) | 41.8 (37.7–45.9) | 58.5 (55.1–61.9) | |
| ≤3 | 58.1 (54.0–62.2) | 95.4 (92.8–98.1) | 96.7 (94.9–98.6) | 49.4 (44.8–53.9) | 69.3 (66.1–72.5) | |
| ≤4 | 75.1 (71.6–78.7) | 82.6 (77.8–87.4) | 91.0 (88.4–93.6) | 58.7 (53.5–63.9) | 77.4 (74.5–80.3) | |
| ≤5 | 93.3 (91.2–95.3) | 61.4 (55.3–67.6) | 85.0 (82.1–87.8) | 79.6 (73.8–85.4) | 83.7 (81.2–86.3) | |
| ≤6 | 95.7 (94.1–97.4) | 46.5 (40.2–52.8) | 80.7 (77.7–83.7) | 82.4 (75.9–88.8) | 81.0 (78.3–83.7) | |
| rCAST score | ≥6 | 92.7 (90.6–94.9) | 48.5 (42.2–54.9) | 80.8 (77.8–83.8) | 74.1 (67.2–80.9) | 79.5 (76.7–82.3) |
| ≥14.5 | 42.1 (38.0–46.2) | 95.9 (93.3–98.4) | 96.0 (93.5–98.4) | 41.5 (37.4–45.6) | 58.2 (54.8–61.6) | |
| PHR risk score | ≥25% | 89.5 (87.0–92.1) | 58.9 (52.7–65.1) | 83.6 (80.6–86.5) | 70.6 (64.4–76.9) | 80.3 (77.6–83.1) |
| ≥50% | 66.1 (62.2–70.0) | 87.6 (83.4–91.7) | 92.5 (90.0–95.1) | 52.5 (47.6–57.4) | 72.5 (69.4–75.6) | |
| ≥75% | 34.3 (30.4–38.2) | 96.7 (94.4–98.9) | 96.0 (93.3–98.7) | 38.6 (34.8–42.5) | 53.0 (49.5–56.4) | |
| OHCA score | >2 | 98.0 (96.9–99.2) | 18.3 (13.4–23.1) | 73.7 (70.5–76.9) | 80.0 (69.4–90.6) | 74.1 (71.1–77.2) |
| >17.4 | 91.3 (89.0–93.6) | 49.8 (43.5–56.1) | 80.9 (77.9–84.0) | 71.0 (64.2–77.8) | 78.9 (76.0–81.7) | |
| >32.5 | 74.8 (71.2–78.4) | 80.9 (76.0–85.9) | 90.1 (87.4–92.9) | 57.9 (52.6–63.1) | 76.6 (73.7–79.5) | |
| Cardiac arrest survival score | ≥5 | 87.4 (84.6–90.1) | 66.4 (60.4–72.4) | 85.9 (83.0–88.7) | 69.3 (63.3–75.2) | 81.1 (78.4–83.8) |
| ≥11 | 51.2 (47.0–55.3) | 90.0 (86.3–93.8) | 92.3 (89.4–95.3) | 44.1 (39.7–48.5) | 62.8 (59.5–66.2) | |
| ≥16 | 15.6 (12.6–18.6) | 98.3 (96.7–100.0) | 95.7 (91.5–99.8) | 33.3 (29.8–36.7) | 40.4 (37.0–43.8) | |
| C-GRApH score | ≥2 | 93.6 (91.6–95.6) | 36.1 (30.0–42.2) | 77.4 (74.2–80.5) | 70.7 (62.7–78.8) | 76.4 (73.4–79.3) |
| ≥4 | 27.0 (23.3–30.7) | 95.0 (92.3–97.8) | 92.7 (88.7–96.7) | 35.8 (32.1–39.5) | 47.4 (43.9–50.8) | |
| SR-QOLl score | <25% | 29.0 (25.2–32.7) | 92.1 (88.7–95.5) | 89.6 (85.1–94.0) | 35.7 (31.9–39.5) | 47.9 (44.4–51.3) |
| <50% | 57.4 (53.3–61.5) | 69.7 (63.9–75.5) | 81.6 (77.7–85.4) | 41.2 (36.4–46.0) | 61.1 (57.7–64.4) | |
| <75% | 80.3 (77.0–83.6) | 53.9 (47.6–60.2) | 80.3 (77.0–83.6) | 53.9 (47.6–60.2) | 72.4 (69.3–75.5) |
Cut-offs were chosen based on risk group categorization proposed in the original publications for the PROLOGUE, TTM risk, CAHP, Aschauer et al., rCAST, OHCA, cardiac arrest survival, and C-GRApH scores. For the SR-QOLl and PHR risk scores, quartiles were used as cut-offs. For the NULL-PLEASE and 5-R scores, each point was used as cut-offs. The cut-off values for PROLOGUE indicate cut-off points of the poor outcome probability predicted using PROLOGUE. CI, confidence interval; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; PROLOGUE, PROgnostication using LOGistic regression model for Unselected adult cardiac arrest patients in the Early stages; TTM, targeted temperature management; CAHP, cardiac arrest hospital prognosis; rCAST, revised post-cardiac arrest syndrome for therapeutic hypothermia; PHR, Polish hypothermia registry; OHCA, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; SR-QOLl, Serbian quality of life long-term.