Table 3.

Cox proportional hazards models, hazard of entering state prison

	M1		M2		M3		M4		M5 (Sample with known CPS history)
	HR	95% Conf. Int.	HR	95% Conf. Int.	HR	95% Conf. Int.	HR	95% Conf. Int.	HR	95% Conf. Int.
Exit type (Reference = Aged out)
Reunifieda	1.68***	[1.44–1.96]	1.58***	[1.35–1.86]	1.58***	[1.34–1.85]	1.78***	[1.48–2.13]	1.96***	[1.53–2.52]
Guardianship/permanent relative placement	0.90	[0.69–1.18]	0.92	[0.71–1.21]	0.88	[0.67–1.15]	1.41*	[1.05–1.88]	1.17	[0.75–1.83]
Child Characteristics
Race (Reference = White)
Black			2.28***	[1.96–2.66]	2.04***	[1.73–2.41]	1.98***	[1.67–2.33]	1.85***	[1.41–2.42]
Hispanic			1.31*	[1.06–1.62]	1.29*	[1.04–1.60]	1.29*	[1.04–1.61]	1.48*	[1.05–2.09]
American Indian			1.71***	[1.36–2.15]	1.57***	[1.24–1.98]	1.43**	[1.13–1.81]	1.55*	[1.06–2.27]
Other			0.85	[0.50–1.44]	0.88	[0.52–1.49]	1.02	[0.60–1.73]	0.71	[0.22–2.26]
Age at first OHC episode			0.98	[0.97–1.00]	0.99	[0.97–1.01]	1.01	[0.99–1.03]	0.99	[0.96–1.02]
Received SSI as child			1.1	[0.96–1.26]	1.08	[0.94–1.24]	0.97	[0.84–1.12]	0.89	[0.73–1.10]
Female			0.09***	[0.07–0.11]	0.09***	[0.07–0.11]	0.10***	[0.08–0.12]	0.09***	[0.06–0.11]
Birth year (reference =1987–1989)
1990–1992			0.87	[0.73–1.02]	0.86	[0.73–1.02]	0.89	[0.75–1.05]	1.09	[0.74–1.59]
1993–1995			0.87	[0.73–1.03]	0.87	[0.73–1.03]	0.95	[0.79–1.13]	1.18	[0.80–1.73]
1996–1997			0.8	[0.63–1.03]	0.82	[0.63–1.05]	0.92	[0.72–1.19]	1.20	[0.76–1.89]
CPS history before last removal (reference = no known abuse or neglect) b
Neglect only			0.58***	[0.46–0.72]	0.57***	[0.45–0.71]	0.69**	[0.54–0.86]
Physical or emotional abuse only			1.05	[0.86–1.28]	1.03	[0.84–1.25]	1.11	[0.91–1.36]	1.67***	[1.28–2.19]
Sexual abuse only			1.16	[0.87–1.54]	1.12	[0.85–1.49]	1.06	[0.79–1.41]	1.58*	[1.11–2.24]
Multiple types			0.96	[0.74–1.24]	0.94	[0.73–1.22]	1.00	[0.77–1.31]	1.47**	[1.12–1.93]
Total reports			1.01	[0.95–1.07]	1.01	[0.95–1.07]	0.99	[0.93–1.05]	0.98	[0.92–1.04]
Birth Family Characteristics
Mother’s age at first birth				-	0.98***	[0.96–0.99]	0.97***	[0.96–0.99]	0.97**	[0.95–0.99]
Child’s birth status (reference =marital birth)				-
Nonmarital birth				-	1.09	[0.93–1.27]	1.10	[0.94–1.28]	1.18	[0.92–1.52]
Birth status unknown				-	0.91	[0.75–1.12]	0.90	[0.73–1.10]	0.83	[0.57–1.21]
Biological family exposures between birth and last removal:
Percent months mother received food assistance				-	0.94	[0.72–1.23]	0.97	[0.74–1.27]	1.28	[0.85–1.93]
Mother’s average quarterly wages				-	1.01	[0.97–1.04]	1.01	[0.97–1.04]	1.03	[0.97–1.10]
Mother’s percent quarters employed				-	1.06	[0.78–1.44]	1.03	[0.75–1.40]	0.86	[0.53–1.41]
Mother received cash assistance				-	1.09	[0.92–1.28]	1.08	[0.92–1.27]	1.06	[0.82–1.37]
Mother incarcerated				-	1.26*	[1.00–1.59]	1.24	[0.98–1.56]	1.04	[0.74–1.47]
Father incarcerated				-	1.21*	[1.04–1.40]	1.17*	[1.01–1.36]	1.09	[0.87–1.36]
Father incarceration unknown (father not identified)				-	1.14	[0.91–1.41]	1.13	[0.91–1.40]	1.15	[0.79–1.67]
Foster Care Characteristics
Logged time in care				-		-	1.00	[0.94–1.06]	0.95	[0.86–1.05]
Pct. time in kin setting				-		-	0.70**	[0.55–0.89]	0.62**	[0.44–0.88]
Pct. time in congregate setting				-		-	1.48***	[1.25–1.76]	1.59**	[1.20–2.12]
History of placement in detention				-		-	1.95***	[1.69–2.24]	2.18***	[1.74–2.73]
History of temporary/shelter placements				-		-	1.00	[0.87–1.15]	1.08	[0.87–1.34]
Number of OHC episodes				-		-	1.07*	[1.01–1.13]	1.04	[0.94–1.14]
Number of OHC placements				-		-	1.02**	[1.01–1.04]	1.03**	[1.01–1.05]

Note: HR = hazard ratio. Sample for Models 1–4 = 10,716; Sample for Model 5 = 5,988. Risk starts at 18th birthday. County fixed effects included; coefficients not shown. SSI=supplemental security income. CPS=Child protective services. OHC= Out-of-home care”.

^aCoefficients for reunified and guardianship/permanent relative placement significantly differ in Models 1, 2 and 3 at p<.001; these coefficients do not significantly differ from one another at conventional levels in Model 4 (p = .07); they significantly differ from each other at at p<.02 in Model 5.

^bReference group for CPS history in Model 5 is “Neglect only”.

^*p<.05

^**p<.01

^***p<.001