Table 3.

Comparison of SMAPE for hotspot clusters formed with SatScan vs clusters of same size formed using AIC + physical distance (weight 5) for 1 week ARIMA predictions

	SatScan	AIC + physical distance (weight 5)
Cluster size	SMAPE	Min SMAPE	Max SMAPE	Mean SMAPE
3	85.76	59.0	67.7	65.1
4	54.23	55.3	64.6	59.7
5	15.82	39.9	66.7	50.5
8	41.36	28.9	54.2	41.1
9	17.64	31.2	51.5	41.0
13	74.5	12.4	48.1	32.4