Table 4.
Cumulative moving average of SMAPE for 1- and 4-week ARIMAX predictions using AIC alone, AIC with physical distance, and physical distance alone. Repeated entries indicate that there were no clusters of that size, and so, the cumulative average value remains unchanged
Physical distance only | Physical distance with AIC | AIC only | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cluster size | Cum. moving avg. | Cum. moving avg. | Cum. moving avg_ | |||
1 week | 4 weeks | 1 week | 4 weeks | 1 week | 4 weeks | |
1 | 87.7 | 87.7 | 87.7 | 87.7 | 87.7 | 87.7 |
2 | 79.8 | 79.8 | 79.2 | 79.2 | 77.4 | 77.4 |
3 | 78.3 | 78.3 | 76.7 | 76.7 | 73.8 | 73.8 |
4 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 74.5 | 74.5 | 71.1 | 71.1 |
5 | 75.1 | 75.1 | 72.7 | 72.7 | 69.0 | 69.0 |
6 | 73.7 | 73.7 | 71.3 | 71.3 | 67.3 | 67.3 |
7 | 72.9 | 72.9 | 69.9 | 69..9 | 65.7 | 65.7 |
8 | 72.5 | 72.5 | 69.1 | 69.1 | 64.7 | 64.7 |
9 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 63.7 | 63.7 |
10 | 71.8 | 71.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 63.1 | 63.1 |
11 | 71.3 | 71.3 | 67.3 | 67.3 | 62.4 | 62.4 |
12 | 70.7 | 70.7 | 66.8 | 66.8 | 61.9 | 61.9 |
13 | 70.5 | 70.5 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 61.3 | 61.3 |
14 | 69.9 | 69.9 | 66.2 | 66.2 | 60.9 | 60..9 |
15 | 64.7 | 69.7 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 60.4 | 60.4 |
16 | 69.7 | 69.7 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 60.1 | 60.1 |
17 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 65.5 | 65.5 | 59.9 | 59.9 |
18 | 69.3 | 69.7 | 65.3 | 65.3 | 59.6 | 59.6 |
19 | 69.2 | 69.2 | 65.1 | 65.1 | 59.4 | 59.4 |
20 | 68.9 | 68.9 | 64.9 | 64.9 | 59.1 | 59.1 |
21 | 68.7 | 68.7 | 64.8 | 64.8 | 58.9 | 58.9 |
22 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 64.7 | 64.7 | 58.7 | 58.7 |
23 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 64.6 | 64.6 | 585 | 58.5 |
24 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 64.5 | 64.5 | 58.4 | 58.4 |
25 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 64.5 | 64.5 | 58.3 | 58.3 |
26 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 64.4 | 64.4 | 58.2 | 58.2 |
27 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 64.3 | 64.3 | 58.1 | 58.1 |
28 | 68.5 | 68.5 | 64.2 | 64.2 | 58.0 | 58.0 |
29 | 68.5 | 68.5 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 57.9 | 57.9 |
30 | 68.5 | 615 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 57.8 | 57.8 |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
279 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 60.6 | 60.6 | 54.4 | 54.4 |