Table 4.

Cumulative moving average of SMAPE for 1- and 4-week ARIMAX predictions using AIC alone, AIC with physical distance, and physical distance alone. Repeated entries indicate that there were no clusters of that size, and so, the cumulative average value remains unchanged

	Physical distance only		Physical distance with AIC		AIC only
Cluster size	Cum. moving avg.		Cum. moving avg.		Cum. moving avg_
	1 week	4 weeks	1 week	4 weeks	1 week	4 weeks
1	87.7	87.7	87.7	87.7	87.7	87.7
2	79.8	79.8	79.2	79.2	77.4	77.4
3	78.3	78.3	76.7	76.7	73.8	73.8
4	75.7	75.7	74.5	74.5	71.1	71.1
5	75.1	75.1	72.7	72.7	69.0	69.0
6	73.7	73.7	71.3	71.3	67.3	67.3
7	72.9	72.9	69.9	69..9	65.7	65.7
8	72.5	72.5	69.1	69.1	64.7	64.7
9	72.0	72.0	68.3	68.3	63.7	63.7
10	71.8	71.8	67.8	67.8	63.1	63.1
11	71.3	71.3	67.3	67.3	62.4	62.4
12	70.7	70.7	66.8	66.8	61.9	61.9
13	70.5	70.5	66.4	66.4	61.3	61.3
14	69.9	69.9	66.2	66.2	60.9	60..9
15	64.7	69.7	66.0	66.0	60.4	60.4
16	69.7	69.7	65.7	65.7	60.1	60.1
17	69.5	69.5	65.5	65.5	59.9	59.9
18	69.3	69.7	65.3	65.3	59.6	59.6
19	69.2	69.2	65.1	65.1	59.4	59.4
20	68.9	68.9	64.9	64.9	59.1	59.1
21	68.7	68.7	64.8	64.8	58.9	58.9
22	68.6	68.6	64.7	64.7	58.7	58.7
23	68.6	68.6	64.6	64.6	585	58.5
24	68.6	68.6	64.5	64.5	58.4	58.4
25	68.6	68.6	64.5	64.5	58.3	58.3
26	68.6	68.6	64.4	64.4	58.2	58.2
27	68.6	68.6	64.3	64.3	58.1	58.1
28	68.5	68.5	64.2	64.2	58.0	58.0
29	68.5	68.5	64.1	64.1	57.9	57.9
30	68.5	615	64.0	64.0	57.8	57.8
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
279	66.3	66.3	60.6	60.6	54.4	54.4