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. 2018 Aug 21;2(4):423–447. doi: 10.1007/s41666-018-0031-z

Table 4.

Cumulative moving average of SMAPE for 1- and 4-week ARIMAX predictions using AIC alone, AIC with physical distance, and physical distance alone. Repeated entries indicate that there were no clusters of that size, and so, the cumulative average value remains unchanged

Physical distance only Physical distance with AIC AIC only
Cluster size Cum. moving avg. Cum. moving avg. Cum. moving avg_
1 week 4 weeks 1 week 4 weeks 1 week 4 weeks
1 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7
2 79.8 79.8 79.2 79.2 77.4 77.4
3 78.3 78.3 76.7 76.7 73.8 73.8
4 75.7 75.7 74.5 74.5 71.1 71.1
5 75.1 75.1 72.7 72.7 69.0 69.0
6 73.7 73.7 71.3 71.3 67.3 67.3
7 72.9 72.9 69.9 69..9 65.7 65.7
8 72.5 72.5 69.1 69.1 64.7 64.7
9 72.0 72.0 68.3 68.3 63.7 63.7
10 71.8 71.8 67.8 67.8 63.1 63.1
11 71.3 71.3 67.3 67.3 62.4 62.4
12 70.7 70.7 66.8 66.8 61.9 61.9
13 70.5 70.5 66.4 66.4 61.3 61.3
14 69.9 69.9 66.2 66.2 60.9 60..9
15 64.7 69.7 66.0 66.0 60.4 60.4
16 69.7 69.7 65.7 65.7 60.1 60.1
17 69.5 69.5 65.5 65.5 59.9 59.9
18 69.3 69.7 65.3 65.3 59.6 59.6
19 69.2 69.2 65.1 65.1 59.4 59.4
20 68.9 68.9 64.9 64.9 59.1 59.1
21 68.7 68.7 64.8 64.8 58.9 58.9
22 68.6 68.6 64.7 64.7 58.7 58.7
23 68.6 68.6 64.6 64.6 585 58.5
24 68.6 68.6 64.5 64.5 58.4 58.4
25 68.6 68.6 64.5 64.5 58.3 58.3
26 68.6 68.6 64.4 64.4 58.2 58.2
27 68.6 68.6 64.3 64.3 58.1 58.1
28 68.5 68.5 64.2 64.2 58.0 58.0
29 68.5 68.5 64.1 64.1 57.9 57.9
30 68.5 615 64.0 64.0 57.8 57.8
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
279 66.3 66.3 60.6 60.6 54.4 54.4