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. 2018 Aug 21;2(4):423–447. doi: 10.1007/s41666-018-0031-z

Table 5.

Cumulative moving average of SMAPE for 1- and 4-week linear regression predictions using AIC alone, AIC with physical distance, and physical distance alone. Repeated entries indicate that there were no clusters of that size, and so, the cumulative average value remains unchanged

Physical distance only Physical distance with AIC AIC only
Cluster size Cum. moving avg. Cum. moving avg. Cum. moving avg.
1 week 4 weeks 1 week 4 weeks 1 week 4 weeks
1 88.8 89.8 88.8 89.8 88.8 89.8
2 80.4 81.0 80.6 81.8 79.7 81.5
3 78.7 76.7 77.6 79.0 75.1 79.9
4 76.4 74.2 75.7 77.3 72.4 78.0
5 75.8 71.9 74.0 75.6 70.0 77.3
6 74.5 70.1 72.5 74.3 68.1 76.2
7 73.8 68.8 71.5 73.3 66.8 75.6
8 73.4 67.8 70.5 72.4 65.6 75.1
9 72.9 66.8 69.8 71.8 64.6 74.6
10 72.7 66.2 69.2 71.2 63.9 74.4
11 72.2 65.6 68.6 70.7 63.2 74.0
12 71.7 65.0 68.0 70.2 62.6 73.4
13 71.3 64.5 67.6 69.8 62.2 73.1
14 70.6 64.1 67.3 69.5 61.7 72.5
15 70.4 63.8 67.0 69.2 61.3 72.3
16 70.4 63.4 66.6 68.9 60.9 72.3
17 70.1 63.1 66.4 68.7 60.6 72.0
18 69.9 62.8 66.1 68.5 60.3 71.9
19 69.7 62.4 65.9 68.3 59.9 71.7
20 69.5 62.3 65.7 68.1 59.8 71.4
21 69.3 62.1 65.5 67.9 59.6 71.2
22 69.1 61.9 65.4 67.8 59.4 71.1
23 69.1 61.8 65.3 67.7 59.2 71.1
24 69.1 61.3 65.1 67.6 59.1 71.1
25 69.1 61.6 65.0 67.5 59.0 71.1
26 69.1 61.4 64.8 67.4 58.9 71.1
27 69.1 64.3 64.7 67.3 58.8 71.1
28 69.0 61.2 64.6 67.2 58.6 71.0
29 69.0 61.1 64.5 67.1 58.5 71.0
30 69.0 61.1 64.4 67.0 58.5 71.0
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
279 66.4 68.7 60.3 63.2 54.9 57.6