Table 2.

Performance of binary NHS 111 triage (ambulance or urgent assessment 4 hours or less) for composite outcome (death or organ support)

Adverse outcome up to 30 days (3%, 2.8%–3.2%) Whole study period
N=40 261	Adverse outcome	No adverse outcome
Ambulance/Urgent assessment	890	15 035	Sensitivity 74.2% (71.6%–76.6%) Positive predictive value 5.6% (5.2%–6%)
Self-care/Non-urgent assessment	310	24 025	Specificity 61.5% (61%–62%) Negative predictive value 98.7% (98.6%–98.9%)
Adverse outcome up to 30 days (3.1%, 2.9%–3.2%) NHS triage pathways 19.3.3/4/5/7 (18 March 2020 to 2 June 2020)
N=36 124	Adverse outcome	No adverse outcome
Ambulance/Urgent assessment	807	13 079	Sensitivity 73.2% (70.4%–75.7%) Positive predictive value 5.8% (5.4%–6.2%)
Self-care/Non-urgent assessment	296	21 942	Specificity 62.7% (62.1%–63.2%) Negative predictive value 98.7 (98.5%–98.8%)
Adverse outcome up to 30 days (2.4%, 1.9%–2.9%) NHS triage pathways 19.3.8/9 (2 June 2020 to 30 June 2020)
N=4137	Adverse outcome	No adverse outcome
Ambulance/Urgent assessment	84	1957	Sensitivity 85.7% (76.9%–91.7%) Positive predictive value 4.1% (3.3%–5.1%)
Self-care/Non-urgent assessment	14	2082	Specificity 51.5% (50%–53.1%) Negative predictive value 99.3 (98.9%–99.6%)

NHS, National Health Service.