Fig. 4. Modelling results from moments for the Misool and North GBR populations of Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos.

SI = strict isolation, IM = isolation with migration, twoep = two periods with different levels of migration, SC = secondary contact, AM = ancestral migration (see Fig. S2 for visual representations of relevant models). a AIC from the best 3 optimizations for all tested models, with the exclusion of SI gene flow (GF) scenarios (as SI models had such high AIC that their inclusion in the graph would have obscured differences among better fitting models). The x-axis groups models by whether or not they include an ancestral expansion (AE), exponential growth in the North GBR following a bottleneck (B), both (AEB), or neither (basic); (b) Weight of evidence (wAIC) for each model, in decreasing order on the x-axis. Four models had wAIC above 0.1: SC_B, IM_AEB, SC_AE and SC_AEB. See Table S1 for more detailed results and all parameter estimates for each model.