TABLE 3.

Parameters, prior distributions, and summary of posterior distributions from the multistate robust‐design model for San Francisco gartersnakes (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) captured at two sites from 2007 to 2020. The prior “N(mean, SD)” represents a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation (SD), “Exp(scale)” is an exponential distribution with a scale parameter, a “Beta(shape1, shape2)” is a beta distribution with two shape parameters, and Uniform(lower, upper) is a uniform distribution between a lower and upper limit. Mean and SD are summary statistics from the posterior distribution for each parameter, and 2.50% and 97.50% indicate percentiles of the posterior distribution

Parameter	Description	Prior	Posterior
			Mean	SD	2.50%	97.50%
p f,C	Mean daily recapture probability of females at Site C	Beta(1,1)	0.010	0.005	0.005	0.023
p m,C	Mean daily recapture probability of males at Site C	Beta(1,1)	0.010	0.004	0.005	0.022
p f,I	Mean daily recapture probability of females at Site I	Beta(1,1)	0.014	0.009	0.004	0.039
p m,I	Mean daily recapture probability of males at Site I	Beta(1,1)	0.020	0.012	0.007	0.052
αp ,at	Slope of relationship between p and air temperature	N(0,1)	0.183	0.082	0.023	0.344
αp ,rh	Slope of relationship between p and relative humidity	N(0,1)	−0.214	0.068	−0.347	−0.080
αp ,at	Slope of relationship between p and day of year	N(0,1)	−0.265	0.089	−0.442	−0.093
αp ,at	Effect of precipitation in previous 24 h on p	N(0,1)	−0.652	0.194	−1.043	−0.283
ϕ f,C	Mean annual survival of females at Site C	Beta(1,1)	0.660	0.109	0.442	0.862
ϕ m,C	Mean annual survival of males at Site C	Beta(1,1)	0.521	0.098	0.334	0.720
ϕ f,I	Mean annual survival of females at Site I	Beta(1,1)	0.523	0.150	0.244	0.821
ϕ m,I	Mean annual survival of males at Site I	Beta(1,1)	0.677	0.136	0.398	0.925
γ f,C	Mean availability of females at Site C	Beta(1,1)	0.330	0.168	0.090	0.730
γ m,C	Mean availability of males at Site C	Beta(1,1)	0.651	0.145	0.365	0.915
γ f,I	Mean availability of females at Site I	Beta(1,1)	0.633	0.228	0.176	0.982
γ m,I	Mean availability of males at Site I	Beta(1,1)	0.594	0.210	0.192	0.960
σp , t	Standard deviation of annual variation in p	Exp(1)	0.647	0.202	0.341	1.143
σϕ,t	Standard deviation of annual variation in ϕ	Exp(1)	1.186	0.483	0.431	2.323
σγ,t	Standard deviation of annual variation in γ	Exp(1)	1.359	0.636	0.193	2.787
ρk , ϕ	Correlation between annual random effect on k and ϕ	Uniform(−1,1)	0.012	0.503	−0.908	0.883