Table 15.
Individual uncertainty scoring of estimation procedures applied in the database. Here we see which estimation procedure was used for which materials and how they have been scored according to the different data quality indicators (R–Reliability, C–Completeness, T–Temporal correlation, G–Geographical correlation, O–Other correlation, EX–Expert judgement). T scores are given as defined in Table 13 according to the distance to the next real datapoint (dep.=depends). Details on estimation procedures can be found in the respective material section above.
| Nr | Estimation procedure | Applied to: | Indicators | Scoring |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Disaggregation by share of earliest datapoint in material flow of larger political aggregate | All materials | G; T | 2; dep. |
| 2 | Additional data included or sums used | All materials | G | 1 |
| 3 | Equal distribution residual of larger political aggregate to countries without data | All materials | G | 3 |
| 4 | Interpolations (linear) & outlier correction | All materials | T | dep. |
| 5 | Future extrapolations using average growth of last 4 years (for max. 2 years) | All materials | EX | 2 |
| 6 | Future extrapolations holding last value constant (for more than 2 years) | Other metals | EX | 3 |
| 7 | Back-casting of trade data based on monetary world exports growth until 1900 | All materials | EX | 4 |
| 8 | Back-casting of trade data based on growth rates of trade in semi-manufactures | Container/Flat glass | EX | 2 |
| 9 | Back-casting using Podobnik historic oil production growth rates | Bitumen, plastics | EX | 2 |
| 10 | Disaggregation (nr.1) based on back-casted estimates | All materials | EX | 4 |
| 11 | Back-casting of latest datapoint using technological starting point and GDP growth rates | Aluminium, plastics | EX | 3 |
| 12 | Back-casting of latest datapoint using GDP growth rates | Cement, asphalt, copper, zinc, lead | EX | 3 |
| 13 | Back-casting of latest datapoint with steel production growth | Other metals | EX | 3 |
| 14 | Back-casting of latest datapoint using population growth rates | Bricks, Wood, paper | EX | 3 |
| 15 | Back-casting based on population growth rate of world region | Wood | EX | 4 |
| 16 | Semi-finished production estimate based on global share of ind. roundwood production | Wood | C | 2 |
| 17 | Ind. roundwood estimate from semi-finished production using global average processing losses | Wood | C | 4 |
| 18 | Estimation based on per-capita material flow average of high/low income countries | Bricks | EX | 4 |
| 19 | Estimate based on average per-capita material flow of countries in the same GDP-decile | Bitumen | EX | 3 |
| 20 | Estimate based on world region developments from Wiedenhofer et al. [137] disaggregated with production capacities | Container/Flat glass | EX | 3 |
| 21 | Complementary data sourcing from official databases e.g. UNICPS | Bitumen, bricks, plastics, glass | See Table 14 | |
| 22 | Complementary data sourcing from scientific studies | All materials | Individually assessed | |
| 23 | Sand and gravel estimate based on real data | Sand and gravel | EX | 2 |
| 24 | Sand and gravel estimate based on estimated data | Sand and gravel | EX | 3 |