Table 3.

Model outputs as compared to calibration target data

Target description	Value	Model output - mean (95% credible interval)	Source
Calibration targets
Number of clinically confirmed COVID-19 cases aged 60 years or older in Wuhan on Mar 9, 2020	15,384	15,573 (15,337 - 15,819)	Chinese CDC [11]
Reported number of COVID-19 deaths in Wuhan as of Mar 9 2020	2,404	2,404 (2,274 - 2,530)	Chinese CDC [11]
Proportion of reported COVID-19 deaths as of Feb 11 2020, by age			Chinese CDC [12]
0-19 years old	0.1%	0.08% (0.01% - 0.18%)
20-59 years old	18.9%	18.88% (18.05% - 19.52%)
60+ years old	81.0%	81.04% (80.30% - 81.94%)