Table 4.
Model-predicted outcomes when varying the start for all control measures. In the status quo, all control measures were implemented on Jan 23, 2020. For all scenarios, we assumed workforce (“Adults”) social distancing in cities other than Wuhan ended on Feb 29, 2020. All other control measures were assumed to continue through Mar 31, 2020. Outcomes are aggregated from Dec 1, 2019 through Mar 31, 2020
| Control measure start date | Wuhan | Chongqing | Beijing | Shanghai |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total COVID-19 deaths - mean (95% credible interval) | ||||
| Jan 9 2020 | 1684 (1615 - 1750) | 6 (6 - 6) | 3 (2 - 3) | 2 (2 - 2) |
| Jan 16 2020 | 2348 (2250 - 2442) | 13 (12 - 13) | 5 (5 - 6) | 4 (4 - 4) |
| Jan 23 2020 | 3209 (3061 - 3348) | 26 (25 - 27) | 11 (10 - 11) | 8 (8 - 8) |
| Jan 30 2020 | 4336 (4132 - 4530) | 49 (47 - 52) | 20 (19 - 22) | 15 (14 - 16) |
| Total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections per 10,000 - mean (95% credible interval) | ||||
| Jan 9 2020 | 53.03 (48.71 - 57.60) | 1.35 (1.21 - 1.50) | 0.85 (0.76 -0.95) | 0.56 (0.50 - 0.62) |
| Jan 16 2020 | 72.53 (66.12 - 79.33) | 2.99 (2.66 - 3.34) | 1.87 (1.66 - 2.10) | 1.23 (1.09 - 1.37) |
| Jan 23 2020 | 97.25 (87.97 - 107.11) | 6.31 (5.58 - 7.11) | 3.92 (3.45 - 4.42) | 2.56 (2.25 - 2.89) |
| Jan 30 2020 | 129.72 (116.46 - 143.88) | 12.64 (11.08- 14.33) | 7.81 (6.82 - 8.88) | 5.10 (4.46 - 5.79) |
| Total economic cost (billion USD) - mean (95% credible interval) | ||||
| Jan 9 2020 | $29.34 (29.28 - 29.40) | $12.13 (12.13 - 12.13) | $18.17 (18.17 - 18.17) | $19.60 (19.60 - 19.60) |
| Jan 16 2020 | $27.44 (27.34 - 27.51) | $10.53 (10.53 - 10.54) | $15.75 (15.75 - 15.75) | $16.99 (16.99 - 16.99) |
| Jan 23 2020 | $25.64 (25.50 - 25.76) | $8.94 (8.93 - 8.95) | $13.32 (13.32 - 13.32) | $14.36 (14.36 - 14.36) |
| Jan 30 2020 | $24.04 (23.84 - 24.22) | $7.39 (7.37 - 7.41) | $10.91 (10.90 - 10.91) | $11.75 (11.74 - 11.75) |