Table 6.
Model-predicted outcomes under different end-date scenarios of school and workplace closures. Scenario 1: reopen schools and workplaces on Feb 15. Scenario 2: reopen schools and workplaces on Feb 15. Scenario 3 (status quo): reopen schools on Mar 31, workplaces on Feb 29. Scenario 4: reopen schools and workplaces on Mar 31. The “Elderly” are assumed to maintain social distancing through Mar 31. Outcomes are aggregated from Dec 1, 2019 through Mar 31, 2020
| Chongqing | Beijing | Shanghai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total COVID-19 deaths - mean (95% credible interval) | |||
| Scenario 1 | 45 (42 - 48) | 19 (18 - 20) | 14 (13 - 15) |
| Scenario 2 | 27 (25 - 28) | 12 (11 - 12) | 8 (8 - 9) |
| Scenario 3 | 26 (25 - 27) | 11 (10 - 11) | 8 (8 - 8) |
| Scenario 4 | 24 (23 - 26) | 10 (10 - 11) | 8 (7 - 8) |
| Total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections per 10,000 individuals - mean (95% credible interval) | |||
| Scenario 1 | 24.71 (21.19 - 28.55) | 14.95 (12.81 - 17.29) | 9.60 (8.23 - 11.10) |
| Scenario 2 | 8.57 (7.49 - 9.73) | 5.10 (4.46 - 5.80) | 3.31 (2.90 - 3.77) |
| Scenario 3 | 6.31 (5.58 - 7.11) | 3.92 (3.45 - 4.42) | 2.56 (2.25 - 2.89) |
| Scenario 4 | 3.82 (3.45 - 4.21) | 2.23 (2.01 - 2.46) | 1.47 (1.33 - 1.62) |
| Total economic cost, in billion USD - mean (95% credible interval) | |||
| Scenario 1 | $5.83 (5.80 - 5.87) | $8.48 (8.47 - 8.50) | $9.12 (9.11 - 9.13) |
| Scenario 2 | $8.94 (8.94 - 8.95) | $13.31 (13.31 - 13.32) | $14.36 (14.35 - 14.36) |
| Scenario 3 | $8.94 (8.93 - 8.95) | $13.32 (13.32 - 13.32) | $14.36 (14.36 - 14.36) |
| Scenario 4 | $16.12 (16.12 - 16.13) | $24.13 (24.13 - 24.13) | $26.03 (26.03 - 26.03) |