Figure 1.

Test performance of an existing prediction model for new-onset atrial fibrillation in an external validation cohort. (A) Receiver operating characteristic curve for prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation in the next 24 hours. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.598 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.587–0.609). (B) Calibration curve for prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation in the next 24 hours. Each circle represents a grouping of patients by predicted probability of atrial fibrillation and the corresponding observed occurrence of atrial fibrillation. Bars show 95% CIs. A rug plot along the x-axis shows the distribution of observations.