Table 3.
ROC curves to predict mortality at 28 and 90 days per country.
| Mortality at 28 days | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | Mexico | Korea | USA | Colombia | France | Brazil | India | Chile | UK | Canada | |
|
MELD
|
0.740 # | 0.748 * | 0.810 * | 0.727 * | 0.759 # | 0.698 | 0.775 * | 0.640 * | 0.967 * | 0.739 * | 0.909 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.550–0.929) | (0.684–0.812) | (0.745–0.875) | (0.650–0.803) | (0.597–0.920) | (0.414–0.981) | (0.648–0.902) | (0.577–0.703) | (0.877–1,057) | (0.699–0.780) | (0.749–1,069) |
| MELD-Na | 0.875 * | 0.749 * | 0.802 * | 0.718 * | 0.721 # | 0.673 | 0.759 * | - | 0.967 * | 0.742 * | 0.932 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.762–0.988) | (0.685–0.813) | (0.735–0.870) | (0.640–0.797) | (0.547–0.895) | (0.431–0.914) | (0.637–0.881) | (0.877–1,057) | (0.701–0.783) | (0.696–1,077) | |
| mDF | 0.656 | 0.677 * | 0.744 * | 0.654 * | 0.702 # | 0.679 | 0.753 * | 0.624 * | 0.767 # | 0.679 * | - |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.468–0.845) | (0.606–0.748) | (0.661–0.828) | (0.570–0.738) | (0.503–0.901) | (0.399–0.959) | (0.629–0.877) | (0.559–0.688) | (0.553–0.980) | (0.636–0.723) | |
| GAHS | 0.807 # | 0.718 * | 0.760 * | 0.653 * | 0.633 | - | 0.820 * | - | 0.867 * | 0.759 * | 0.830 # |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.608–1,007) | (0.649–0.786) | (0.685–0.834) | (0.568–0.738) | (0.427–0.839) | (0.696–0.943) | (0.695–1,038) | (0.719–0.799) | (0.584–1,075) | ||
| ABIC | 0.802 * | 0.665 * | 0.737 * | 0.727 * | 0.743 # | 0.802 # | 0.701 # | 0.601 # | 0.967 * | 0.751 * | 0.886 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.644–0.961) | (0.594–0.735) | (0.655–0.819) | (0.646–0.808) | (0.562–0.923) | (0.589–1,016) | (0.569–0.834) | (0.533–0.669) | (0.877–1,057) | (0.711–0.792) | (0.696–1,077) |
| Mortality at 90 days | |||||||||||
| Spain | Mexico | Korea | USA | Colombia | France | Brazil | India | Chile | UK | Canada | |
| MELD | 0.847 * | 0.765 * | 0.836 * | 0.766 * | 0.759 # | 0.694 | 0.748 * | 0.645 * | 0.967 * | 0.709 * | 0.914 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.701–0.992) | (0.700–0.829) | (0.784–0.889) | (0.698–0.834) | (0.597–0.920) | (0.478–0.911) | (0.624–0.871) | (0.587–0.703) | (0.877–1,057) | (0.674–0.745) | (0.803–1,025) |
| MELD-Na | 0.867 * | 0.771 * | 0.831 * | 0.766 * | 0.721 # | 0.708 # | 0.736 * | - | 0.967 * | 0.709 * | 0.898 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.726–1,007) | (0.707–0.835) | (0.775–0.888) | (0.699–0.834) | (0.547–0.895) | (0.516–0.900) | (0.613–0.860) | (0.877–1,057) | (0.673–0.744) | (0.772–1,025) | |
| mDF | 0.693 | 0.686 * | 0.764 * | 0.696 * | 0.702 # | 0.519 | 0.673 # | 0.619 * | 0.767 # | 0.673 * | - |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.495–0.902) | (0.613–0.759) | (0.693–0.836) | (0.622–0.770) | (0.503–0.901) | (0.265–0.772) | (0.535–0.912) | (0.560–0.678) | (0.553–0.980) | (0.637–0.710) | |
| GAHS | 0.897 * | 0.729 * | 0.802 * | 0.724 * | 0.633 | - | 0.791 * | - | 0.867 * | 0.718 * | 0.941 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.760–1,033) | (0.662–0.797) | (0.743–0.861) | (0.652–0.796) | (0.427–0.839) | (0.675–0.906) | (0.695–1,038) | (0.682–0.753) | (0.852–1,031) | ||
| ABIC | 0.880 * | 0.701 * | 0.739 * | 0.789 * | 0.743 # | 0.736 # | 0.694 # | 0.599 # | 0.967 * | 0.726 * | 0.945 * |
| AUC, 95% CI | (0.760–1,000) | (0.631–0.772) | (0.669–0.809) | (0.724–0.854) | (0.562–0.923) | (0.538–0.934) | (0.561–0.827) | (0.539–0.659) | (0.877–1,057) | (0.691–0.761) | (0.856–1,035) |
#
p<0.05
*
p<0.001
MELD: model for end-stage liver disease, mDF: Maddrey’s discriminant function, GAHS: Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score, ABIC: age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score, AUC: area under curve, CI: confidence interval