Table 4.
Receiver operation characteristic analysis for different cut-off values of the different prognostic scores to predict death at 28 and 90 days.
| Mortality at 28 days | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELD | MELD-Na | mDF | GAHS | ABIC | |
| Cut-off value | 25 | 28 | 51 | 9 | 9 |
| Sensitivity, 95% CI | 68 (64–72) | 77 (73–81) | 81 (77–84) | 59 (54–64) | 57 (53–61) |
| Specificity, 95% CI | 70 (68–72) | 67 (65–69) | 48 (45–50) | 81 (79–83) | 77 (75–79) |
| Positive LR, 95% CI | 2.3 (2.1–2.5) | 2.3 (2.1–2.5) | 1.5 (1.5–1.6) | 3.1 (2.7–3.5) | 2.5 (2.2–2.8) |
| Negative LR, 95% CI | 0.4 (0.4–0.5) | 0.3 (0.3–0.4) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 0.5 (0.4–0.6) | 0.6 (0.5–0.6) |
| PPV, 95% CI | 36 (34–38) | 36 (34–38) | 29 (27–30) | 43 (40–46) | 38 (36–41) |
| NPV, 95% CI | 90 (89–91) | 92 (91–94) | 90 (89–92) | 89 (88–90) | 88 (87–89) |
| Mortality at 90 days | |||||
| MELD | MELD-Na | mDF | GAHS | ABIC | |
| Cut-off value | 25 | 28 | 52 | 8 | 9 |
| Sensitivity, 95% CI | 63 (60–67) | 71 (67–74) | 76 (72–79) | 77 (73–80) | 55 (51–58) |
| Specificity, 95% CI | 73 (71–76) | 71 (69–73) | 54 (52–57) | 60 (57–63) | 77 (75–79) |
| Positive LR, 95% CI | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 2.4 (2.2–2.7) | 1.6 (1.5–1.8) | 1.9 (1.8–2.1) | 2.4 (2.2–2.7) |
| Negative LR, 95% CI | 0.5 (0.5–0.6) | 0.4 (0.4–0.5) | 0.4 (0.4–0.5) | 0.4 (0.3–0.4) | 0.6 (0.5–0.6) |
| PPV, 95% CI | 52 (49–54) | 51 (49–54) | 43 (41–45) | 46 (44–48) | 52 (49–54) |
| NPV, 95% CI | 82 (80–83) | 85 (83–86) | 83 (81–85) | 85 (83–87) | 79 (78–81) |
MELD: model for end-stage liver disease, mDF: Maddrey’s discriminant function, GAHS: Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score, ABIC: age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score, CI: confidence interval, LR: likelihood ratio, PPV: positive predictive value, NPV: negative predictive value