Table 1.
Model Parameters and Sources, by Frequency of Source
| No. of Parameters (n = 1,303) | Data | Literature, % | Author Decisions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter Type | NSDUH, % | CDC WONDER, % | Reports a ,% | Other Primary Data Sources b , % | Calibrated, % | Assumed, % | Calculated, % | ||
| MOUD treatment | 212 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 7.10 | 4.70 | 63.20 | 3.30 | 9.40 | 11.30 |
| Naloxone | 49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 87.80 | 6.10 | 2.00 | 4.10 |
| Heroin use | 17 | 29.40 | 0.00 | 5.90 | 0.00 | 58.80 | 5.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Injection drug use | 386 | 2.10 | 0.00 | 8.50 | 18.70 | 57.50 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| Recreational PO use | 26 | 50.00 | 3.80 | 7.70 | 3.80 | 34.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| OUD transition | 163 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 4.30 | 93.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| OUD | 39 | 17.90 | 2.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 74.40 | 0.00 | 5.10 | 0.00 |
| Emergency medical services | 31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.90 | 0.00 | 83.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 |
| Fatal or nonfatal overdose | 75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 81.30 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 14.70 |
| Mortality ratec | 116 | 0.00 | 9.50 | 11.20 | 4.30 | 69.80 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 4.30 |
| Overdose death | 69 | 5.80 | 4.30 | 0.00 | 13.00 | 76.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of nonfatal vs fatal | 19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.30 | 0.00 | 89.50 | 5.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Relapse | 51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.80 | 0.00 | 80.40 | 0.00 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Drug use cessation | 50 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Percentage of total | 1,303 | 3.30 | 1.20 | 6.10 | 8.10 | 70.90 | 1.30 | 3.80 | 5.40 |
Abbreviations: MOUD, medication for opioid use disorder; NSDUH, National Survey on Drug Use and Health; OUD, opioid use disorder; PO, prescription opioid.
a Includes official reports from government agencies and treatment programs, and direct data reports.
b Includes British Columbia Methadone Maintenance Treatment Outcome Study (Canada) (72), Consortium to Study Opioid Risks and Trends (CONSORT; United States) (84, 92, 93); Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS; United States) (115); Ekaterinburg Global Fund Study (Russia) (54); El Cuete IV Cohort Study (Mexico) (53); Expanding Medication Assisted Therapy in Ukraine (ExMAT Survey; Ukraine) (56); Harm Reduction Database (Wales) (82); Omsk Global Fund study (Russia) (54); Scientific Evaluation of Supervised Injecting Study (SEOSI; Canada) (52, 72); Simple Treatment Monitoring Application (STMA; Ukraine) (56); The Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS; United States) (94); Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study (VIDUS; Canada) (52, 72).
c Mortality rate is nonspecific to opioid overdose.