Table 2.
Model Parameters and Sources, by References per Source
| Parameter Type | Data | Literature | Author Decisions c | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSDUH | CDC WONDER | Reports a | Other Primary Data Sources b | Calibrated | Assumed | Calculated | ||
| MOUD treatment | Barnett, 2001 (63); Zarkin, 2005 (115) | Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Birger, 2017 (34); Chalmers, 2009 (85); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Irvine, 2019 (68); Wilson, 2003 (39); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | Barbosa, 2019 (51); Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Enns, 2016 (37); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Zarkin, 2005 (115) | Alistar, 2011 (61); Alistar, 2014 (62); Barnett, 2001 (63); Battista, 2019 (33); Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Bernard, 2016 (64); Bernard, 2017 (35); Birger, 2017 (34); Borquez, 2018 (53); Cepeda, 2018 (54); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Enns, 2016 (37); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Javanbakht, 2014 (65); King, 2016 (81); McGregor, 2019 (83); Morozova, 2020 (56); Pitt, 2018 (90); Uyei, 2017 (66); Vickerman, 2012 (49); Wakeland, 2011 (92); Wilson, 2003 (39); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41); Zeiler, 2010 (60); Zou, 2018 (95) | Battista, 2019 (33); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Coffin, 2013 (77); Enns, 2016 (37); Fraser, 2018 (Scotland) (112); Irvine, 2018 (79); Irvine, 2019 (68) | Barbosa, 2019 (51); Birger, 2017 (34); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Irvine, 2019 (68); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Vickerman, 2012 (49); Wisløff, 2018 (40); Zarkin, 2005 (115); Zou, 2018 (95) | Chalmers, 2009 (85); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58) | |
| Naloxone | Coffin, 2013 (77); Langham, 2018 (82); Townsend, 2020 (118); Uyei, 2017 (66) | Irvine, 2018 (79); Townsend, 2020 (118) | Irvine, 2018 (79) | Coffin, 2013 (78); (77); Townsend, 2020 (118) | ||||
| Heroin use | Pitt, 2018 (90); Zarkin, 2005 (115) | Pitt, 2018 (90) | Caulkins, 2007 (36); Chalmers, 2009 (85); Chen, 2019 (86); Pitt, 2018 (90) | Chalmers, 2009 (85) | ||||
| Injection drug use | Gicquelais, 2019 (111) | Barnett, 2001 (63); Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Bernard, 2016 (64); Bernard, 2017 (35); Birger, 2017 (34); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Enns, 2016 (37); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Irvine, 2018 (79); Martin, Vickerman, 2013 (44); Nosyk, 2012 (72); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Borquez, 2018 (53); Cepeda, 2018 (54); Enns, 2016 (37); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Khan, 2018 (102); Mabileau, 2018 (45); Morozova, 2020 (56); Nosyk, 2012 (72); Wisløff, 2018 (40) | Alistar, 2011 (61); Alistar, 2014 (62); Barbosa, 2019 (51); Barnett, 2001 (63); Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Bernard, 2016 (64); Bernard, 2017 (35); Birger, 2017 (34); Borquez, 2018 (53); Cepeda, 2018 (54); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Enns, 2016 (37); Fraser, 2018 (rural) (113); Fraser, 2018 (Europe); Fraser, 2018 (Scotland) (112); Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Goedel, 2020 (110); Javanbakht, 2014 (65); Mabileau, 2018 (45); Martin, 2013 (46); Martin, Vickerman (44); Nosyk, 2012 (72); Nosyk, 2017 (38); Rhodes, 2010 (47); Rhodes, 2015 (48); Vickerman, 2014 (50); Wilson, 2003 (39); Wisløff, 2018 (40); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41); Zeiler et al 2010 (60); Zou, 2018 (95) | Borquez, 2018 (53); Chen, 2019 (86); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Enns, 2016 (37); Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Irvine, 2018 (79); Vickerman, 2014 (50) | Barbosa, 2019 (51); Cepeda, 2018 (54); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Fraser, 2018 (Scotland) (112); Martin, 2013 (46); Nosyk, 2012 (72); Rhodes, 2010 (47); Wilson, 2003 (39); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | Barbosa, 2019 (51); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | |
| Recreational prescription opioid use | Chen, 2019 (86); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Wakeland, 2013 (93); Wakeland, 2015 (94); Yenikomshian, 2017 (69) | Chen, 2019 (86) | White, 2007 (55) | Wakeland, 2015 (94) | Chalmers, 2009 (85); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Wakeland, 2015 (94) | |||
| OUD transition | Coffin, 2013 (78); Irvine, 2018 (79) | Nosyk, 2012 (72); Wakeland, 2015 (94) | Barnett, 2001 (63); Carter, 2017 (76); Coffin, 2013 (78); Coffin, 2013) (77); Jackson, 2015 (80); Krebs, 2018 (71); Langham, 2018 (82); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Nosyk, 2012 (72); Uyei, 2017 (66); Wakeland, 2013 (93); Wakeland, 2015 (94); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | Irvine, 2018 (79) | ||||
| OUD | Chen, 2019 (86); Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Townsend, 2020 (118) | Pitt, 2018 (90) | Battista, 2019 (33); Carter, 2017 (76); Cipriano, 2018 (117); McGregor, 2019 (83); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Pitt, 2018 (90); Townsend, 2020 (118); Wakeland, 2011 (92); Wakeland, 2013 (93); Yenikomshian, 2017 (69) | Cipriano, 2018 (117); Nielsen, 2012 (84) | ||||
| Emergency medical services | Langham, 2018 (82); Uyei, 2017 (66) | Cipriano, 2018 (117); Coffin, 2013) (78); Coffin, 2013 (77); Langham, 2018 (82); Uyei, 2017 (66) | Irvine, 2019 (68) | |||||
| Fatal or nonfatal overdose | Langham, 2018 (82) | Langham, 2018 (82) | Carter, 2017 (76); Coffin, 2013 (78); Coffin, 2013 (77); Irvine, 2018 (79); Irvine, 2019 (68); Langham, 2018 (82); McGregor, 2019 (83); Townsend, 2020 (118); Uyei, 2017 (66) | Coffin, 2013 (77); Irvine, 2018 (79); Irvine, 2019 (68); Townsend, 2020 | Cipriano, 2018 (117) | |||
| Mortality rated | Nielsen, 2012 (84); Pitt, 2018 (90); Wakeland, 2011 (92); Wakeland, 2013 (93) | Bernard, 2016 (64); Birger, 2017 (34); Cipriano, 2012 (57); Fraser, 2018 (rural) (113); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58) Martin, 2013 (44); McGregor, 2019 (83); Pitt, 2018 (90); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Borquez, 2018 (53); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Morozova, 2020 (56) | Barnett, 2001 (63); Barnett, 1999 (73); Battista, 2019 (33); Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Bernard, 2016 (64); Bernard, 2017 (35); Birger, 2017 (34); Cipriano, 2018 (117); Cipriano, 2012; Fraser, 2018 (rural) (113); Fraser, 2018 (Europe) (58); Fraser, 2018 (Scotland) (112); Jackson, 2015 ; Martin, Vickerman, 2013 (44); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Pitt, 2018 (90); Wakeland, 2013 (93); Wisløff, 2018 (40); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41); Zarkin, 2005 (115) | Coffin, 2013 (77); Ritter, 2016 (120) | Cipriano, 2012 (57) | ||
| Overdose death | Chen, 2019 (86) | Chen, 2019 (86); Wakeland, 2015 (94) | Nielsen, 2012 (84); Wakeland, 2011 (92); Wakeland, 2013 (93) | Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Cepeda, 2018 (54); Cipriano, 2018 (117); Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Nielsen, 2012 (84); Nosyk, 2017 (38); Townsend, 2020 (118); Wakeland, 2013 (93) | ||||
| Probability of nonfatal vs. fatal | Cipriano, 2018 (117) | Cipriano, 2018 (117); Coffin, 2013 (77); Langham, 2018 (82) | Coffin, 2013 (77) | |||||
| Relapse | Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Irvine, 2018 (79); Irvine, 2019 (68) | Barnett, 2001 (63); Battista, 2019 (33); Carter, 2017 (76); Coffin, 2013 (78); Coffin, 2013 (77); Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Langham, 2018 (82); Townsend, 2020 (118); Wisløff, 2018 (40); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41) | Zarkin, 2005 (115) | |||||
| Drug use cessation | Wakeland, 2013 (93); Zarkin, 2005 (115) | Bayoumi, 2008 (52); Fraser, 2018 (112); Gicquelais, 2019 (111); Martin, Vickerman, 2013 (46); Townsend, 2020 (118); Vickerman, 2012 (49); Wisløff, 2018 (40); Zaric, 2000 (42); Zaric, Brandeau, 2000 (41); Zou, 2018 (95) | ||||||
Abbreviations: MOUD, medication for opioid use disorder; NSDUH, National Survey on Drug Use and Health; OUD, Opioid use disorder.
a Includes official reports from government agencies and treatment programs, and direct data reports.
b Includes British Columbia Methadone Maintenance Treatment Outcome Study (Canada) (72), Consortium to Study Opioid Risks and Trends (CONSORT; United States) (84, 92, 93); Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS; United States) (115); Ekaterinburg Global Fund Study (Russia) (54); El Cuete IV Cohort Study (Mexico) (53); Expanding Medication Assisted Therapy in Ukraine (ExMAT Survey; Ukraine) (56); Harm Reduction Database (Wales) (82); Omsk Global Fund study (Russia) (54); Scientific Evaluation of Supervised Injecting Study (SEOSI; Canada) (52, 72); Simple Treatment Monitoring Application (STMA; Ukraine) (56); The Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS; United States) (94); Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study (VIDUS; Canada) (52, 72).
c Calibrated, assumed, and calculated values for each parameter can be found in Web Tables 2, 3, and 4.
d Mortality rate is nonspecific to opioid overdose.