Table 3. Relationship between clinician predictions and actual survival.
Doctors | Observed survival (weeks) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated survival (weeks) | <1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7–8 | 9–10 | 11–12 | >12 |
Total |
Not given | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 24 |
< 1 | 94 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 122 |
2 | 49 | 26 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 114 |
3 | 23 | 23 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 99 |
4 | 25 | 27 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 135 |
5 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 47 |
6 | 11 | 27 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 159 |
7–8 | 12 | 20 | 25 | 24 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 17 | 12 | 50 | 208 |
9–10 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 153 |
11–12 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 18 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 89 | 218 |
>12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 377 | 554 |
Nurses | |||||||||||
Not given | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
< 1 | 88 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 111 |
2 | 44 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 101 |
3 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 79 |
4 | 22 | 25 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 128 |
5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 64 |
6 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 133 |
7–8 | 14 | 36 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 13 | 30 | 19 | 16 | 53 | 247 |
9–10 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 112 |
11–12 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 88 | 210 |
>12 | 14 | 15 | 22 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 37 | 36 | 39 | 400 | 639 |
Total | 251 | 181 | 131 | 140 | 92 | 91 | 128 | 94 | 91 | 634 | 1833 |