Table 5. Accuracy of doctor and nurse probabilistic predictions.

Clinician	Time point (days)	Brier’s score (95% confidence interval)a	IPAb
Doctor	1	0.016 (0.013, 0.020)	0.984
	3	0.036 (0.031, 0.042)	0.962
	7	0.07 (0.062, 0.078)	0.921
	15	0.129 (0.119, 0.139)	0.828
	30	0.169 (0.159, 0.178)	0.720
	60	0.183 (0.172, 0.193)	0.578
Nurse	1	0.017 (0.013, 0.022)	0.982
	3	0.04 (0.033, 0.046)	0.959
	7	0.071 (0.063, 0.08)	0.919
	15	0.143 (0.131, 0.154)	0.810
	30	0.192 (0.181, 0.204)	0.681
	60	0.201 (0.189, 0.212)	0.536

Notes

a For Brier’s scores lower is better.

b For IPA scores higher is better.