Table 2.
Feature ranking by origin and destination
| Panel A | Panel B | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corridor & Day dummies | Corr. dum. | |||||
| Features | Linear | KNN | G-Boost | MLP | Avg. | Avg. |
| Indiv. features | ||||||
| Origin - C1 School closures | 100 | 69 | 100 | 59 | 82 | 85 |
| Destin - C1 School closures | 94 | 60 | 36 | 85 | 68 | 68 |
| Destin - C3 Cancel public events | 19 | 64 | 77 | 68 | 57 | 57 |
| Origin - C3 Cancel public events | 10 | 100 | 33 | 65 | 52 | 46 |
| Origin - C7 Restr. Internal movement | 0 | 93 | 16 | 100 | 52 | 51 |
| Origin - H2 Testing policy | 14 | 7 | 87 | 92 | 50 | 43 |
| Origin - C4 Restrictions gatherings | 50 | 51 | 40 | 54 | 49 | 44 |
| Origin - C6 Stay home requirements | 92 | 16 | 12 | 59 | 45 | 21 |
| Destin - C6 Stay home requirements | 17 | 15 | 96 | 54 | 45 | 45 |
| Destin - C4 Restrictions gatherings | 6 | 48 | 70 | 25 | 37 | 42 |
| Destin - C7 Restr. Internal movement | 13 | 66 | 12 | 58 | 37 | 29 |
| Origin - H3 Contact tracing | 5 | 12 | 27 | 44 | 22 | 22 |
| Origin - C8 International travel bans | 1 | 1 | 45 | 40 | 22 | 18 |
| Origin - New Covid deaths | 0 | 7 | 73 | 5 | 21 | 46 |
| Origin - New Covid cases | 11 | 0 | 21 | 52 | 21 | 75 |
| Destin - New Covid deaths | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 20 | 49 |
| Destin - C5 Close public transport | 34 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 20 | 9 |
| Destin - H3 Contact tracing | 31 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 7 |
| Destin - C2 Workplace closing | 5 | 33 | 7 | 23 | 17 | 21 |
| Destin - C8 International travel bans | 0 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 16 | 24 |
| Destin - New Covid cases | 12 | 0 | 43 | 6 | 15 | 38 |
| Origin - C5 Close public transport | 18 | 7 | 0 | 31 | 14 | 12 |
| Origin - C2 Workplace closing | 1 | 23 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 23 |
| Destin - H2 Testing policy | 9 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Synthetic features | ||||||
| Destin - Component 1 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Origin - Component 1 | 13 | 75 | 20 | 49 | 39 | 48 |
| Origin - Component 2 | 1 | 55 | 17 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| Destin - Component 2 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 |
| Origin - New Covid cases | 0 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 12 | 75 |
| Destin - New Covid deaths | 5 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 49 |
| Origin - New Covid deaths | 1 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 46 |
| Destin - New Covid cases | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 38 |
Notes: The different features are ranked following the permutation importance method. For each approach, we provide results obtained with the model including day/corridor dummies (cols. 1-5) and the version including corridors dummies only (col. 6). Directional priors are always used to identify the effects of origin- and destination-specific features. The importance values of each feature is computed over 10 permutations using the negative mean absolute error (MAE). The resulted values are scaled between 0% and 100% separately for each model. The col. ‘Avg.’ averages the results obtained with the four learning techniques. The features are ranked according to the average importance of the models including the day/corridor dummies (Panel A). In Panel B, we only report the ‘Avg.’ score without reporting the model-specific results