TABLE 2.
Predicted cumulative excess cancer mortality by site, assuming different hazard ratios (HRs) for the effect of a 4‐week delay on cancer mortality, for Canada 2020 to 2030
| Excess deaths (N) | Relative mortality increase (%) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR 1.03 | HR 1.06 a | HR 1.1 | HR 1.2 | HR 1.5 | HR 1.03 | HR 1.06 a | HR 1.1 | HR 1.2 | HR 1.5 | |
| Overall | 12 606 | 21 247 | 31 178 | 42 987 | 59 577 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% |
| By site | ||||||||||
| Bladder | 956 | 1464 | 2235 | 3232 | 4706 | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% |
| Brain | 488 | 606 | 824 | 970 | 1084 | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| Breast | 1953 | 3116 | 4735 | 6932 | 10 478 | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 19.7% |
| Central nervous system | 22 | 58 | 94 | 102 | 176 | 3.1% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Cervix | 183 | 267 | 307 | 498 | 728 | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 12.1% |
| Colorectal | 2400 | 4305 | 5896 | 8624 | 12 143 | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% |
| Esophagus | 118 | 225 | 300 | 442 | 522 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Hodgkin lymphoma | 82 | 129 | 166 | 260 | 362 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 348 | 608 | 866 | 1304 | 1960 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| Larynx | 139 | 278 | 354 | 506 | 632 | 2.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.9% |
| Leukemia | 206 | 462 | 832 | 1198 | 1686 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% |
| Liver | 294 | 332 | 604 | 554 | 764 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| Lung | 1574 | 3082 | 3791 | 5116 | 6405 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Melanoma | 304 | 589 | 944 | 1428 | 2110 | 2.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 14.9% |
| Multiple myeloma | 344 | 434 | 560 | 756 | 1026 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% |
| Non‐Hodgkin lymphoma | 927 | 1566 | 2159 | 3216 | 4406 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% |
| Oral | 1164 | 1720 | 2440 | 3159 | 4087 | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 14.8% |
| Ovary | 332 | 623 | 882 | 1226 | 1326 | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% |
| Pancreas | 70 | 145 | 304 | 346 | 560 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Prostate | 356 | 314 | 502 | 702 | 1076 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% |
| Stomach | 353 | 584 | 667 | 923 | 1242 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% |
| Testis | 28 | 66 | 89 | 142 | 177 | 3.6% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% |
| Thyroid | 40 | 61 | 132 | 196 | 256 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.9% |
| Uterus | 528 | 848 | 1108 | 1768 | 2619 | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 16.7% |
Note: Results are the median of model predictions.
Abbreviation: HR, hazard ratio.
a
Base case scenario.