FIGURE 3.

Difference in alcohol‐related liver mortality and morbidity between COVID‐19 consumption scenario and counterfactual for US adults aged 18+, 2019–2040. Annual and cumulative rates for morbidity and mortality differences between the COVID‐19 consumption scenario and counterfactual scenario associated with ALD. In the COVID‐19 consumption scenario, some drinkers increase consumption during 2020, while in the counterfactual scenario, drinking progresses without any increases associated with COVID‐19. Shaded regions represent the 95% UI associated with the probabilistic sensitivity analysis