Figure - PMC

Skip to main content

An official website of the United States government

Here's how you know

Here's how you know

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

View full-text article in PMC

. 2022 Apr 19;12:6457. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-10097-z

Search in PMC
Search in PubMed
View in NLM Catalog
Add to search

© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

PMC Copyright notice

(a) Cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2-infected humans (purple line), calculated total number of virus copies produced (green line) until October 5, 2021 (cf. “Methods”), detected (red line) and predicted (grey shaded area, representing minimum and maximum bounds) RBD variants over time. The predicted RBD variants are based on Monte Carlo simulation of viral mutations. New RBD variants are generated based on a mutation rate of 2 per million human infections. The fitness of new variants is taken as a Pareto distribution with scale 10^–6 and shape parameter ¼. The proportional population of two variants is assumed to change at a rate proportional to the ratio of their fitness, with a characteristic time of 20 days. Isolates are modeled as random samples from the resulting viral population. (b) Cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 isolates sequenced over time (blue line) and cumulative number of detected RBD variants rescaled by a factor of 900 over time (brown line).