Fig. 4.

Outbreak analysis for Mexico City metropolitan area. From left to right, confirmed cases and deaths. Central red lines indicate the median incidence forecast. The darker shaded region indicates the interquartile forecast range, and the lighter shaded region indicates the 5–95th percentile range. All displayed forecast durations are 21 days from the point of prediction. We stress that nowcasting is very accurate throughout examples presented here and in the SM. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)