Fig. 6.

Outbreak analysis for Mexico City metropolitan area. (a) Proportion of the effective population ($\omega$), (b) contact rate ($\beta$), and (c) fraction observed infected individuals dying ($g$). Central red lines indicate median incidence forecast. Darker shaded region indicates forecast interquartile range, and lighter shaded region indicates 5–95th percentile range. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)