Fig. 8.

We present a slope-graph of the average weekly forecast performance for all 32 states in Mexico. Panel (a) and panel (b) correspond to confirmed cases and confirmed deaths, respectively. Each line connects a state’s average performance for 1 to 4 weeks forecast. Darker and lighter colors correspond to the performance measured for the 50% and 80% prediction cones, respectively. We also include ZVMX performance in black color. In all cases, the forecast’s performance decreases slightly with the prediction length. The 50% cone has a performance value between 50 and 80 percent, and the 80% cone has a corresponding value between 80% and 100% for confirmed cases. In the case of deaths, the 50% and 80% cones have performance values between 40% and 60% and between 60% and 100%, respectively. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)