Table 2. Comparison of model performance between RSF model and 5 other models in predicting early recurrence.
Performance | Cohort | RSF | ERASL | Korean | AJCC TNM | BCLC | Chinese |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Discrimination | |||||||
Harrell’s C-index | Training | 0.725 (0.005) | 0.706 (0.006) | 0.658 (0.006) | 0.674 (0.006) | 0.635 (0.006) | 0.684 (0.006) |
Internal | 0.762 (0.011) | 0.726 (0.012) | 0.672 (0.013) | 0.711 (0.012) | 0.646 (0.012) | 0.709 (0.012) | |
External | 0.747 (0.016) | 0.727 (0.017) | 0.722 (0.017) | 0.711 (0.017) | 0.658 (0.018) | 0.696 (0.018) | |
Gönen & Heller’s K | Training | 0.684 (0.005) | 0.672 (0.005) | 0.638 (0.006) | 0.647 (0.005) | 0.616 (0.004) | 0.642 (0.004) |
Internal | 0.711 (0.008) | 0.694 (0.010) | 0.654 (0.011) | 0.667 (0.008) | 0.617 (0.008) | 0.651 (0.008) | |
External | 0.697 (0.014) | 0.689 (0.015) | 0.688 (0.015) | 0.657 (0.014) | 0.619 (0.013) | 0.632 (0.013) | |
Time-dependent AUC (2 years) | Training | 0.818 (0.008) | 0.791 (0.008) | 0.721 (0.009) | 0.747 (0.008) | 0.689 (0.008) | 0.757 (0.008) |
Internal | 0.823 (0.014) | 0.784 (0.016) | 0.727 (0.017) | 0.757 (0.015) | 0.676 (0.014) | 0.758 (0.016) | |
External | 0.785 (0.025) | 0.783 (0.025) | 0.780 (0.025) | 0.749 (0.026) | 0.678 (0.025) | 0.717 (0.027) | |
Clinical usefulness | |||||||
Net benefit at threshold 50% | Training | 0.166 | 0.154 | 0.093 | 0.139 | 0.137 | 0.137 |
Internal | 0.121 | 0.092 | 0.041 | 0.095 | 0.073 | 0.073 | |
External | 0.206 | 0.190 | 0.222 | 0.185 | 0.154 | 0.154 | |
Overall performance | |||||||
Time-dependent Brier (2 years) | Training | 0.147 | 0.156 | 0.174 | 0.160 | 0.167 | 0.161 |
Internal | 0.129 | 0.143 | 0.159 | 0.144 | 0.154 | 0.146 | |
External | 0.156 | 0.162 | 0.161 | 0.169 | 0.180 | 0.176 | |
Time-dependent R2 (2 years) | Training | 0.287 | 0.239 | 0.142 | 0.220 | 0.175 | 0.214 |
Internal | 0.306 | 0.233 | 0.145 | 0.220 | 0.150 | 0.206 | |
External | 0.235 | 0.225 | 0.230 | 0.187 | 0.125 | 0.140 |
The parentheses are standard errors. AUC, areas under receiver operating characteristic curve; RSF, random survival forests; ERASL, early recurrence after surgery for liver tumor; AJCC TNM, American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor-node-metastasis; BCLC, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer.