Table 3.
Health, health system cost and GHG emission impacts of sensitivity and further scenario analyses around the base case for each scenario.
| Sensitivity/Scenario Analyses | Health Gains: QALYs (Millions) | Net Health System Cost Savings (NZD Billion) | Change in kgCO2-eq per Person per Day | Cost of Diet per Person per Day (% Change from Baseline Diets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1: GHG weighted tax, all foods | ||||
| Base case analysis * | 0.44 | NZD 8.5 | −0.35 | 3.8% |
| S1 (lower) | 0.24 | NZD 4.6 | −0.18 | 1.9% |
| S1 (upper) | 0.75 | NZD 14.2 | −0.67 | 7.6% |
| Undiscounted | 1.62 | NZD 23.7 | ||
| S2: GHG weighted tax, high emitters | ||||
| Base case analysis * | 0.20 | NZD 3.7 | −0.21 | 1.9% |
| S2 (lower) | 0.11 | NZD 2.1 | −0.11 | 1.0% |
| S2 (upper) | 0.33 | NZD 5.9 | −0.41 | 3.9% |
| Undiscounted | 0.74 | NZD 10.0 | ||
| S3: GHG weighted tax and subsidy | ||||
| Base case analysis * | 0.42 | NZD 6.5 | −0.21 | −0.5% |
| S3 (lower) | 0.25 | NZD 4.1 | −0.12 | −0.3% |
| S3 (upper) | 0.52 | NZD 6.7 | −0.30 | −1.0% |
| Undiscounted | 1.55 | NZD 16.8 | ||
| S4: Percentage tax on high emitters | ||||
| Base case analysis * | 0.16 | NZD 2.5 | −0.22 | 4.7% |
| S4 (lower) | 0.11 | NZD 1.9 | −0.12 | 2.4% |
| S4 (upper) | 0.07 | NZD 0.0 | −0.37 | 9.5% |
| Undiscounted | 0.59 | NZD 6.5 | ||
* 3% discounting, no discounting applied to GHG emissions.