Table 3. Estimated COVID-19 Mortality Reductions and Potential Deaths Averted, for Individuals Aged 18-65 Years, per 100 000 Persons, by Race or Ethnicity and Gender, If All Groups Held the Lowest-Risk Educational and Occupational Positions, California, January 1, 2020, to February 12, 2021.
| Gender and race or ethnicity | Population | COVID-19 mortality risk per 100 000 if all individuals had the lowest risk (95% CI) | Change relative to composition-adjusted, % | Absolute risk reduction per 100 000, in lowest risk scenario (95% CI) | Estimated potential deaths averted in lowest risk scenario (95% CI)a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | |||||
| Asian | 2 063 142 | 3 (0 to 6) | −77 | −10 (−14 to −5) | 206 (103 to 289) |
| Black | 723 166 | 47 (28 to 66) | −8 | −4 (−22 to 14) | 29 (−101 to 159) |
| Latinx | 4 852 961 | 22 (16 to 28) | −69 | −48 (−54 to −42) | 2329 (2038 to 2621) |
| White | 4 407 412 | 3 (0 to 6) | −80 | −12 (−15 to −9) | 529 (397 to 661) |
| Otherb | 468 250 | 23 (10 to 36) | −50 | −23 (−35 to −10) | 108 (47 164) |
| Men | |||||
| Asian | 1 862 352 | 9 (0 to 18) | −67 | −18 (−25 to −12) | 335 (223 to 466) |
| Black | 748 985 | 65 (48 to 81) | −25 | −22 (−39 to −6) | 165 (45 to 292) |
| Latinx | 5 006 298 | 66 (55 to 76) | −53 | −75 (−85 to −66) | 3755 (3304 to 4255) |
| White | 4 632 967 | 9 (6 to 12) | −65 | −17 (−20 to −13) | 788 (602 to 927) |
| Otherb | 469 559 | 41 (26 to 55) | −51 | −42 (−56 to −28) | 197 (131 to 263) |
a
Estimates present the difference in the projected COVID-19 mortality risk for each racial and ethnic–gender group if all racial and ethnic groups had the same distribution of age, nativity, and region of residence as White people vs if all racial and ethnic groups additionally were in the lowest-risk education and occupation positions (had a Bachelor’s degree or higher and worked in nonessential, telework-amenable occupations in the highest quintile of median annual wages).
b
Other race and ethnicity includes American Indian, Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, multiracial, and unspecified (all non-Latinx).