Table 4. Symptomatic seroprevalence by age groups and mask type, expressed in prevalence ratios.
All regressions include an indicator for each control-intervention pair. The regressions include controls for baseline rates of mask-wearing and baseline symptom rates. “Baseline symptom rate” is defined as the rate of surveyed individuals in a village who report symptoms coinciding with the WHO definition of a probable COVID-19 case. We assume that (i) all reported symptoms were acute onset, (ii) all people live or work in an area with a high risk of transmission of virus, and (iii) all people have been a contact of a probable or confirmed case of COVID-19 or are linked to a COVID-19 cluster. The analysis in the top panel uses the preregistered sample, equivalent to that in Table 2; it includes all people surveyed in the baseline household visits, excluding individuals for whom we did not collect midline or endline symptoms, symptomatic individuals from whom we did not collect blood, and individuals from whom we drew blood but did not test their blood. The analysis in the bottom panel replicates the regressions in the top panel but imputes the seropositivity of individuals from whom we did not draw blood. For symptomatic individuals from whom we did not draw blood, we simulate their symptomatic-seroprevalence status by using the average rate of conditional seropositivity among all symptomatic individuals. This analysis includes all people surveyed in the baseline household visits, excluding individuals for whom we did not collect midline or endline symptoms.
Parameter | All | <40 years old |
40 to
49 years old |
50 to
59 years old |
≥60 years old |
Preregistered sample: Drop individuals without blood draws | |||||
Intervention prevalence ratio for surgical mask villages | 0.889** [0.780, 0.997] |
0.967 [0.834, 1.100] |
1.009 [0.817, 1.200] |
0.772** [0.595, 0.949] |
0.647*** [0.448, 0.845] |
Intervention prevalence ratio for cloth mask villages | 0.942 [0.781, 1.103] |
1.058 [0.870, 1.247] |
0.713** [0.459, 0.967] |
0.838 [0.524, 1.153] |
1.084 [0.769, 1.399] |
Average symptomatic-seroprevalence in paired control villages† | 0.0076 | 0.0055 | 0.0095 | 0.0108 | 0.0104 |
N individuals | 287,349 | 146,306 | 35,839 | 24,086 | 27,943 |
N villages | 538 | 480 | 384 | 348 | 360 |
Imputing symptomatic-seroprevalence for missing blood draws | |||||
Intervention prevalence ratio for surgical mask villages | 0.873*** [0.801, 0.945] |
0.917* [0.829, 1.005] |
0.975 [0.862, 1.088] |
0.815*** [0.688, 0.942] |
0.701*** [0.577, 0.824] |
Intervention prevalence ratio for cloth mask villages | 0.890** [0.787, 0.993] |
0.861*** [0.758, 0.965] |
0.838** [0.678, 0.998] |
1.153 [0.970, 1.336] |
0.792** [0.601, 0.983] |
Average symptomatic-seroprevalence in paired control villages† | 0.0189 | 0.0152 | 0.0226 | 0.0229 | 0.0251 |
N individuals | 321,383 | 177,708 | 51,676 | 37,340 | 43,431 |
N villages | 570 | 566 | 528 | 504 | 534 |
***Significant at the 1% level.
**Significant at the 5% level.
*Significant at the 10% level.
†We report the mean rate of symptomatic seroprevalence at endline. This is not equivalent to the coefficient on the constant due to the inclusion of the pair indicators as controls.