Table 4.
Autumn transition, disaggregate spatial and temporal models: RDD results summary
Location | Band | Time period | All casualties | Fatalities | ||||||||||
BW | n | % Change | BW | n | % Change | |||||||||
Aggregate | 1 | 18 | 16 197 | 1035 | 1043 | −0.096 (0.019)*** | −0.13 | 38 | 13 671 | 104 | 97 | −0.030 (0.012)* | −0.40 | |
3 | 72 | 75 642 | 20 645 | 20 684 | −0.101 (0.028)*** | −0.01 | ||||||||
4 | 34 | 37 821 | 7728 | 5448 | −0.077 (0.024)** | −0.01 | ||||||||
5 | 32 | 37 821 | 7449 | 3851 | −0.231 (0.030)*** | −0.04 | 60 | 24 936 | 285 | 282 | −0.035 (0.016)* | −0.17 | ||
Northing band | 0–1000 | 1 | 38 | 2534 | 90 | 53 | −0.153 (0.058)** | −2.38 | ||||||
5 | 64 | 5044 | 389 | 297 | −0.156 (0.062)* | −0.56 | ||||||||
1000–2000 | 1 | 24 | 10 015 | 630 | 572 | −0.158 (0.036)*** | −0.35 | 40 | 4888 | 50 | 19 | −0.052 (0.017)** | −1.45 | |
4 | 30 | 12 048 | 1993 | 1837 | −0.129 (0.036)*** | −0.09 | ||||||||
2000–3000 | 1 | 32 | 9695 | 408 | 353 | −0.112 (0.035)** | −0.39 | |||||||
5 | 48 | 12 708 | 1534 | 891 | −0.190 (0.058)** | −0.17 | ||||||||
3000–4000 | 1 | 26 | 6010 | 289 | 265 | −0.152 (0.045)*** | −0.74 | |||||||
4 | 40 | 9576 | 1475 | 1540 | −0.118 (0.042)** | −0.11 | ||||||||
5000–6000 | 2 | 48 | 3440 | 261 | 309 | −0.076 (0.031)* | −0.41 | |||||||
7000–8000 | 5 | 70 | 1470 | 66 | 69 | −0.094 (0.045)* | −1.84 | |||||||
8000–9000 | 1 | 56 | 583 | 34 | 27 | −0.280 (0.097)** | −11.53 | |||||||
5 | 66 | 793 | 89 | 51 | −0.362 (0.128)** | −5.69 | ||||||||
Easting band | 1000–2000 | 1 | 64 | 1092 | 30 | 20 | −0.072 (0.036)* | −3.34 | ||||||
2000–3000 | 3 | 78 | 3210 | 26 | 37 | −0.056 (0.021)** | −3.00 | |||||||
4 | 54 | 7018 | 853 | 678 | −0.091 (0.043)* | −0.15 | ||||||||
3000–4000 | 1 | 26 | 8195 | 411 | 352 | −0.136 (0.040)*** | −0.46 | |||||||
5 | 44 | 14 985 | 2189 | 1351 | −0.222 (0.050)*** | −0.14 | ||||||||
4000–5000 | 1 | 26 | 9825 | 498 | 473 | −0.129 (0.032)*** | −0.36 | |||||||
5 | 44 | 17 874 | 2840 | 1663 | −0.252 (0.057)*** | −0.12 | ||||||||
5000–6000 | 1 | 22 | 8525 | 566 | 534 | −0.187 (0.037)*** | −0.46 | 44 | 4491 | 34 | 12 | −0.042 (0.014)** | −1.71 | |
4 | 34 | 12 033 | 2397 | 1532 | −0.127 (0.039)** | −0.07 | ||||||||
5 | 48 | 15 408 | 2853 | 1807 | −0.279 (0.056)*** | −0.14 | ||||||||
6000–7000 | 5 | 42 | 2394 | 257 | 106 | −0.191 (0.086)* | −1.04 |
Significance notation: p values 0, ‘***’; 0.001, ‘**’; 0.01, ‘*’; 0.05, ‘.’; 0.1, ‘1’.
SEs in parentheses.
Time periods are as follows: 1, overnight; 2, AM peak; 3, interpeak; 4, PM peak; 5, night.
BW, bandwidth; n, total number of observations; RDD, regression discontinuity design; Yafter, total number of casualties or fatalities after the cut-off; Ybefore, total number of casualties or fatalities before the cut-off; τSRD, sharp RDD average treatment effect due to daylight savings time transition.