Table 2.
Discriminatory ability of models to predict incident HF, compared with the ARIC HF clinical model
| Model | C-index (95% CI) | Difference in C-index (95% CI), compared with ARIC clinical model with published coefficients | Difference in C-index (95% CI), compared with ARIC clinical model with re-estimated coefficients |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIC clinical model (published coefficients) | 0.680 (0.652–0.708) | Reference | NA |
| ARIC + NT-proBNP model | 0.740 (0.714–0.765) | 0.060 (0.043–0.077) | NA |
| NT-proBNP alone | 0.703 (0.676–0.731) | 0.024 (−0.013 to 0.060) | 0.002 (−0.035 to 0.039) |
| hsTnT alone | 0.679 (0.650–0.707) | −0.001 (−0.035 to 0.033) | −0.023 (−0.057 to 0.011) |
| NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.728 (0.701–0.755) | 0.048 (0.015–0.082) | 0.026 (−0.008 to 0.061) |
| LV mass + LV ejection fraction | 0.701 (0.672–0.730) | 0.021 (−0.013 to 0.056) | −0.001 (−0.034 to 0.032) |
| Clinical variables (re-estimated coefficients) | 0.702 (0.673–0.731) | 0.022 (0.002–0.043) | Reference |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP | 0.750 (0.724–0.777) | 0.071 (0.044–0.098) | 0.048 (0.028–0.069) |
| Clinical variables + hsTnT | 0.726 (0.699–0.754) | 0.046 (0.022–0.071) | 0.024 (0.008–0.040) |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.753 (0.726–0.779) | 0.073 (0.045–0.100) | 0.051 (0.029–0.072) |
| Clinical variables + LV mass + LV ejection fraction | 0.742 (0.715–0.769) | 0.062 (0.036–0.089) | 0.040 (0.022–0.058) |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT + LV mass + LV ejection fraction | 0.765 (0.739–0.791) | 0.086 (0.058–0.114) | 0.064 (0.041–0.086) |
ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; BMI, body mass index; HF, heart failure; hsTNT, high sensitivity troponin-T; LV, left ventricular; NA, not applicable; NT-proBNP, N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide.
Entries for ARIC clinical and ARIC + NT-proBNP models are C-index and associated 95% bootstrap CIs; all other entries are 10-fold cross-validated C-indices or difference in C-indices compared with ARIC clinical model and associated 95% bootstrap CIs. Bolded entries indicate statistical significance at the 5% level. ARIC model predicts 10-year risk of HF from age, Black race/ethnicity, sex, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medications, diabetes, coronary heart disease, current smoking, former smoking, and BMI.