Table 3.
Final coefficient estimates of top regression models to predict incident heart failure
| Predictor | Clinical variables + cardiac biomarkers | Clinical variables + cardiac biomarkers + ECHO variables |
|---|---|---|
| Age (yr) | 0.00809 | 0.0107 |
| Black race/ethnicity | 0.165 | 0.141 |
| Male sex | −0.0811 | −0.194 |
| Heart rate (bpm) | 0.00691 | 0.00422 |
| Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) | 0.00777 | 0.00581 |
| Antihypertensives | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| Diabetes | 0.328 | 0.399 |
| CHD | 0.358 | 0.253 |
| Current smoking | 0.301 | 0.261 |
| Former smoking | 0.368 | 0.351 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 0.0235 | 0.00762 |
| NT-proBNP (pg/ml) | −0.0000964 | −0.00018 |
| hsTnT (pg/ml) | −0.0037 | −0.00321 |
| Log (NT-proBNP [pg/ml]) | 0.379 | 0.338 |
| Log (hsTnT [pg/ml]) | 0.398 | 0.311 |
| LV mass (g/m2.7) | 0.0196 | |
| LV ejection fraction (%) | −0.0302 | |
| Mean linear predictor | 6.854 | 4.921 |
BMI, body mass index; bpm, beats per minute; CHD, coronary heart disease; ECHO, echocardiogram; hsTNT, high sensitivity troponin-T; LV, left ventricular; MLP, mean linear predictor; NT-proBNP, N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide.
Predicted 10-year risk of incident heart failure can be calculated as 1 – 0.84490e(ΣXβ - MLP), where β is the regression coefficient, X is the level for each risk factor, and MLP is the value of the mean linear predictor listed above.