Table 4.
Discriminatory ability of models to predict incident HFpEF and HFrEF, compared with the ARIC HF clinical model
| Model | Incident HFpEF |
Incident HFrEF |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-index (95% CI) | Difference in C-index (95% CI), compared with ARIC clinical model with published coefficients | Difference in C-index (95% CI), compared with ARIC clinical model with re-estimated coefficients | C-index (95% CI) | Difference in C-index (95% CI), compared with ARIC clinical model with published coefficients | Difference in C-index (95% CI), compared with ARIC clinical model with re-estimated coefficients | |
| ARIC clinical model (published coefficients) | 0.664 (0.622–0.706) | Reference | NA | 0.690 (0.637–0.744) | Reference | NA |
| ARIC + NT-proBNP model | 0.719 (0.679–0.759) | 0.055 (0.027–0.083) | NA | 0.749 (0.703–0.795) | 0.058 (0.031–0.086) | NA |
| NT-proBNP alone | 0.674 (0.628–0.720) | 0.010 (−0.047 to 0.066) | −0.018 (−0.079 to 0.043) | 0.714 (0.666–0.762) | 0.023 (−0.043 to 0.090) | 0.026 (−0.048 to 0.099) |
| hsTnT alone | 0.667 (0.622–0.712) | 0.003 (−0.053 to 0.059) | −0.025 (−0.084 to 0.035) | 0.658 (0.604–0.712) | −0.033 (−0.087 to 0.021) | −0.030 (−0.088 to 0.027) |
| NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.700 (0.653–0.747) | 0.036 (−0.018 to 0.090) | 0.008 (−0.049 to 0.066) | 0.724 (0.675–0.773) | 0.034 (−0.026 to 0.093) | 0.036 (−0.030 to 0.102) |
| LV mass + LV ejection fraction | 0.674 (0.632–0.716) | 0.010 (−0.043 to 0.062) | −0.018 (−0.073 to 0.037) | 0.731 (0.679–0.782) | 0.040 (−0.023 to 0.103) | 0.042 (−0.024 to 0.109) |
| Clinical variables only (re-estimated coefficients) | 0.694 (0.643–0.744) | 0.027 (−0.014 to 0.068) | Reference | 0.688 (0.630–0.746) | −0.002 (−0.034 to 0.030) | Reference |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP | 0.722 (0.674–0.770) | 0.058 (0.012–0.103) | 0.030 (0.001–0.059) | 0.752 (0.706–0.799) | 0.062 (0.015–0.109) | 0.064 (0.023–0.106) |
| Clinical variables + hsTnT | 0.715 (0.668–0.762) | 0.051 (0.007–0.095) | 0.024 (−0.002 to 0.049) | 0.699 (0.639–0.758) | 0.008 (−0.027 to 0.044) | 0.011 (−0.012 to 0.033) |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.728 (0.681–0.775) | 0.064 (0.018–0.110) | 0.037 (0.005–0.068) | 0.750 (0.702–0.798) | 0.060 (0.012–0.108) | 0.062 (0.020–0.104) |
| Clinical variables + LV mass + LV ejection fraction | 0.704 (0.656–0.751) | 0.039 (−0.003 to 0.082) | 0.012 (−0.007 to 0.031) | 0.754 (0.704–0.804) | 0.064 (0.017–0.111) | 0.066 (0.027–0.105) |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT + LV mass + LV ejection fraction | 0.729 (0.682–0.776) | 0.065 (0.019–0.111) | 0.037 (0.005–0.070) | 0.775 (0.729–0.822) | 0.085 (0.033–0.137) | 0.087 (0.041–0.134) |
ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; BMI, body mass index; HF, heart failure; HFpEF, HF with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF, HF with reduced ejection fraction; hsTnT, high sensitivity troponin-T; LV, left ventricular; NA, not applicable; NT-proBNP, N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide.
Entries for ARIC clinical and ARIC + NT-proBNP models are C-index and associated 95% bootstrap CIs; all other entries are 10-fold cross-validated C-indices or difference in C-indices compared with ARIC clinical model and associated 95% bootstrap CIs. Bolded entries indicate statistical significance at the 5% level. ARIC model predicts 10-year risk of HF from age, Black race/ethnicity, sex, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medications, diabetes, coronary heart disease, current smoking, former smoking, and BMI.