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. 2020 Jul 7;47(13-15):2328–2353. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1789076

Table 13. Swefire: TVaR95(X) and TVaR99(X) with corresponding ranking and backtesting p-values.

  Tail value at risk min p-value
Model TVaR95(X) Rank TVaR99(X) Rank TVaR95(X) TVaR99(X)
Empirical 17.39   28.37      
UG-DUC 13.81 2 20.77 2 0.20 0.03
LN-DUC 15.90 1 31.23 1 0.20 0.30
UG 9.25 9 12.97 10 0.00 0.00
LN 9.97 7 17.45 5 0.01 0.00
Exponential 9.25 8 12.97 9 0.00 0.00
Weibull 10.41 6 15.34 6 0.01 0.00
Normal 10.92 5 13.43 8 0.03 0.00
Logistic 6.73 13 8.86 13 0.00 0.00
Skew-logistic 6.90 12 9.22 12 0.00 0.00
Skew-normal 11.14 4 13.76 7 0.03 0.00
Skew-t 8.35 10 18.20 4 0.00 0.00
Hyperbolic 8.23 11 11.41 11 0.00 0.00
Pareto(t-score) 11.46 3 20.27 3 0.03 0.01