Table 13. Swefire: and with corresponding ranking and backtesting p-values.
| Tail value at risk | min p-value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Rank | Rank | ||||
| Empirical | 17.39 | 28.37 | ||||
| UG-DUC | 13.81 | 2 | 20.77 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| LN-DUC | 15.90 | 1 | 31.23 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| UG | 9.25 | 9 | 12.97 | 10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| LN | 9.97 | 7 | 17.45 | 5 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Exponential | 9.25 | 8 | 12.97 | 9 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Weibull | 10.41 | 6 | 15.34 | 6 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Normal | 10.92 | 5 | 13.43 | 8 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Logistic | 6.73 | 13 | 8.86 | 13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Skew-logistic | 6.90 | 12 | 9.22 | 12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Skew-normal | 11.14 | 4 | 13.76 | 7 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Skew-t | 8.35 | 10 | 18.20 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hyperbolic | 8.23 | 11 | 11.41 | 11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pareto(t-score) | 11.46 | 3 | 20.27 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.01 |