Table 3. Posterior predictive validation of the models.
Observed | Basic model | Scaled IW model | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Teams | Scored | Conc'd | Wins | Points | Scored | Conc'd | Wins | Points | Scored | Conc'd | Wins | Points |
Bergamo | 1848 | 2025 | 7 | 19 | 1846 | 2020 | 7 | 21 | 1847 | 2020 | 7 | 21 |
Busto Arsizio | 1999 | 1927 | 12 | 39 | 1998 | 1919 | 12 | 37 | 2006 | 1920 | 12 | 37 |
Casalmaggiore | 1922 | 2051 | 6 | 23 | 1918 | 2042 | 7 | 23 | 1906 | 2039 | 7 | 23 |
Conegliano | 1960 | 1696 | 17 | 50 | 1960 | 1706 | 18 | 50 | 1955 | 1713 | 18 | 50 |
Filottrano | 1781 | 1961 | 7 | 19 | 1790 | 1954 | 6 | 18 | 1810 | 1950 | 6 | 18 |
Legnano | 1642 | 1903 | 5 | 11 | 1656 | 1898 | 4 | 17 | 1660 | 1901 | 4 | 17 |
Monza | 2003 | 1943 | 13 | 37 | 1994 | 1938 | 13 | 38 | 2005 | 1935 | 13 | 38 |
Novara | 1987 | 1776 | 17 | 51 | 1963 | 1776 | 17 | 51 | 1963 | 1781 | 17 | 51 |
Pesaro | 1776 | 1820 | 10 | 32 | 1785 | 1828 | 11 | 32 | 1789 | 1831 | 11 | 33 |
Piacenza | 1888 | 1939 | 12 | 33 | 1886 | 1935 | 9 | 30 | 1890 | 1933 | 9 | 30 |
San Casciano | 1807 | 1881 | 8 | 27 | 1812 | 1880 | 9 | 29 | 1797 | 1879 | 9 | 28 |
Scandicci | 1865 | 1556 | 18 | 50 | 1858 | 1578 | 18 | 51 | 1862 | 1580 | 18 | 51 |
Note: The observed data and the replications from the basic and the scaled IW model are compared in terms of: total number of points scores and conceded, total number of wins and total number of points earned by each team at the end of the season.