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. 2022 Apr 27;12:6874. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-10896-4

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Coupling ratio ${\hat{R}}_{t} / R_{t}$ plotted with respect to the estimated percentage of immune population. During the first months of 2021 the coupling ratio varies around 1, which corresponds to the periods where the $R_{t}$ and ${\hat{R}}_{t}$ are in concordance in Fig. 1. Immune population includes immunity achieved by vaccination (taking into account its effectiveness) and natural infection (see “Estimation of the IFR and immune population” section). The percentage of people fully vaccinated is described as well. The coupling ratio crosses the threshold (decoupling point) at percentages of immune population that varies along the five countries from 29% in Argentina to 33% in Uruguay, 37% in Paraguay, 43% in Chile and 45% in Brazil. Confidence intervals are shown in horizontal black lines. They inherit the large uncertainty in the IFR estimation (see Table 1).