Table 4.

Fractional Probit Estimator: Determinants of Monthly COVID-19 Cases - Marginal Effects.

	(4.1)	(4.2)	(4.3)	(4.4)
	March Cases pc	March Cases pc	Mar-Apr Cases pc	Mar-Apr Cases pc
ShPop 20-30	−0.827	−1.030	−2.460	−3.029
	(−1.18)	(−1.40)	(−0.90)	(−1.06)
ShPop 30-40	−0.906***	−0.934***	−3.620***	−3.610***
	(−2.86)	(−2.72)	(−3.20)	(−2.60)
ShPop 40-50	−0.0683	−0.159	−0.873	−1.086
	(−0.14)	(−0.33)	(−0.41)	(−0.50)
ShPop 50-60	−0.987***	−1.069***	−3.957***	−4.142***
	(−2.74)	(−2.91)	(−2.72)	(−2.78)
ShPop 60-70	−0.932*	−0.911*	−2.581	−2.479
	(−1.95)	(−1.89)	(−1.52)	(−1.48)
ShPop over 70	−0.206	−0.249	−0.691	−0.761
	(−0.86)	(−0.90)	(−0.70)	(−0.68)
PopDens	−0.00000316	−0.00000330	−0.0000176*	−0.0000177*
	(−1.23)	(−1.25)	(−1.84)	(−1.81)
Income	0.00000213*	0.00000173	0.0000143***	0.0000129***
	(1.95)	(1.56)	(3.60)	(3.31)
Share of pop. in mun under 30k inhab	0.0243**	0.0297***	0.0865**	0.106**
	(2.27)	(2.66)	(2.15)	(2.44)
Feb Cases	0.0000690***	0.0000710***	0.000293***	0.000300***
	(4.95)	(4.67)	(4.77)	(4.50)
Jan-Feb matches pc	234.0**		856.5**
	(2.37)		(2.21)
Jan-Feb public pc		0.0193		0.0595
		(0.68)		(0.51)
Observations	98	98	98	98

Marginal effects; t statistics in parentheses (d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1.

Robust standard errors, observations weighted by province population size *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.