Table 2.

Summary of Predictive Model Performance in Test Set

	Regularized logistic regression	Gradient boosting machines
Round 1
AUROC	0.67 (95% CI, 0.67–0.67)	0.66 (95% CI, 0.66–0.66)
Brier score	0.23 (95% CI, 0.23–0.23)	0.23 (95% CI, 0.23–0.23)
Logloss	0.64 (95% CI, 0.64–0.64)	0.65 (95% CI, 0.65–0.65)
Round 2
AUROC	0.73 (95% CI, 0.72–0.73)	0.73 (95% CI, 0.73–0.73)
Brier score	0.21 (95% CI, 0.21–0.21)	0.22 (95% CI, 0.22–0.22)
Logloss	0.62 (95% CI, 0.62–0.62)	0.62 (95% CI, 0.62–0.62)
Round 3
AUROC	0.77 (95% CI, 0.77–0.77)	0.77 (95% CI, 0.77–0.78)
Brier score	0.19 (95% CI, 0.19–0.19)	0.19 (95% CI, 0.19–0.19)
Logloss	0.58 (95% CI, 0.58–0.58)	0.57 (95% CI, 0.57–0.57)

AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; Logloss, logarithmic loss.