Table 3: Projection scenarios.
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | ||
| Potential changes in Reff(t) | ||||
| Public health announcements | Date (2021) | Reff(t) | Reff(t) | Reff(t) |
| 3 regions to reopen [44] | 10th February | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Additional 27 regions to reopen [53] | 16th February | 0.95 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Additional 3 regions to reopen [54] | 8th March | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Further lifting of restrictions [55] | 21st March | 1.05 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Potential further lifting of restrictions | 1st April | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Potential changes in hospital usage parameters | ||||
| Percentage of cases requiring hospitalization, % | 1st February–30th April | 4.1 | 5 | 5 |
| Percentage admitted to ICU among those hospitalized, % | 1st February 1–30th April | 30.5 | 32.5 | 34.5 |
| Percentage of ICU admissions with mechanical ventilation, % | 1st February–30th April | 42.5 | 44.5 | 46.5 |
| Potential vaccine rollouts [56] | ||||
| Daily vaccination rate* | January | 2,200 | 2,200 | 2,200 |
| Daily vaccination rate* | February | 6,900 | 6,900 | 6,900 |
| Daily vaccination rate** | March | 45,000 | 45,000 | 45,000 |
| Daily vaccination rate** | April | 90,000 | 90,000 | 90,000 |
| Capacity available for patients with COVID-19 | ||||
| Hospital beds | 1st February–30th April | 4,514 | 4,514 | 4,514 |
| ICU beds | 1st February–30th April | 514 | 514 | 514 |
| Additional 500 “surge beds” | February | 1,014 | 1,014 | 1,014 |
| ICU beds with ventilator | 1st February–30th April | 328 | 328 | 328 |
*Number of daily fully vaccinated individuals (i.e., 2 doses with 95% efficacy after 12 days)
**Number of daily vaccinated individuals with a single dose (i.e., 1 dose with 70% efficacy after 12 days)