Table 2.
Discrete time event history analysis predicting the likelihood of taking a first trip within Mexico versus a first trip to the United States (1990 to 2018)
| Variable | First Mexican Trip | First Undocumented Trip | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|||
| B | SE | B | SE | |
|
| ||||
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Municipal Homicide Rate | 0.028** | 0.013 | −0.133*** | 0.200 |
| Rate of GDP Growth (%) | −0.004* | 0.002 | −0.006** | 0.002 |
| Population Growth Rate (%) | −0.226 | 0.647 | 0.599 | 0.626 |
| Mexican Minimum Daily Wage | 0.084 | 0.159 | 0.413** | 0.145 |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| LN Border Patrol Budget | −0.344 | 0.804 | −0.164 | 0.878 |
| Rate of US Employment Growth | 0.042 | 0.038 | 0.059 | 0.037 |
| Residence / Work Visas (000) | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.002*** | 0.0002 |
| U.S. Minimum Daily Wage | 0.062 | 0.109 | 0.098 | 0.120 |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | 0.010 | 0.017 | −0.034 | 0.021 |
| Age-Squared | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.001*** | 0.0003 |
| Female | −0.096 | 0.097 | −1.216*** | 0.139 |
| Married | −0.114 | 0.082 | 0.063 | 0.081 |
| No. of Minors in Household | −0.005 | 0.028 | 0.032 | 0.023 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Years of Labor Force Experience | −0.024** | 0.008 | 0.024** | 0.0095 |
| Years of Education | 0.044*** | 0.010 | −0.027** | 0.0093 |
| Agricultural occupation | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unskilled occupation | −0.015 | 0.072 | −0.051 | 0.0631 |
| Skilled occupation | −0.233** | 0.104 | −0.672*** | 0.1142 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | 0.224 | 0.186 | 0.779*** | 0.131 |
| No. of U.S. Migrant Siblings | 0.031 | 0.043 | 0.240*** | 0.026 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | −0.521 | 0.596 | 1.513*** | 0.234 |
| No. of U.S. migrant children | −0.152 | 0.110 | 0.170** | 0.082 |
| No. of U.S. Born children | 0.144 | 0.469 | −13.187 | 590.172 |
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.030*** | 0.003 | 0.024*** | 0.003 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | −0.074 | 0.147 | −0.532 | 0.121 |
| Home | −1 372*** | 0.087 | −0.153** | 0.071 |
| Business | −0.342** | 0.119 | −0.396*** | 0.114 |
| Region of Origin | ||||
| Historical | −0.398*** | 0.073 | −0.135** | 0.065 |
| Community Size | ||||
| Metropolitan Area (100,000+) | --- | --- | ||
| Small Cities (10,000–99,999) | −0.541*** | 0.093 | 0.946*** | 0.130 |
| Town (2,501–9,999) | −0.644*** | 0.088 | 0.795*** | 0.128 |
| Rural Villages (<=2,500) | −0.519*** | 0.109 | 1.213*** | 0.135 |
| Intercept | −5.380*** | 1.001 | −8.625*** | 1.023 |
| Log Likelihood | −12994.793 | |||
| Likelihood Ratio Chi Squared | 3856.160*** | |||
| Number of Person Years | 201,899 | |||
+
p=.10;
*
p<.05;
**
p<.01;
***
p<.001