Table 3.
Discrete time event history analysis predicting additional trip within Mexico or a first trip to the United States for persons whose first trip was within Mexico (1990 to 2018)
| Variable | Additional Mexican Trip | First Undocumented Trip | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|||
| B | SE | B | SE | |
|
| ||||
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Municipal Homicide Rate | −0.037* | 0.022 | −0.151** | 0.500 |
| Rate of GDP Growth (%) | −0.006 | 0.004 | −0.004 | 0.006 |
| Population Growth Rate (%) | −0.990 | 0.973 | 2.858* | 1.663 |
| Mexican Minimum Daily Wage | 0.330 | 0.241 | 0.191 | 0.382 |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| LN Border Patrol Budget | 2.974* | 1.118 | −1.439 | 1.898 |
| Rate of US Employment Growth | 0.071 | 0.058 | 0.188* | 0.107 |
| Residence / Work Visas (000) | −0.000 | 0.000 | −0.001 | 0.001 |
| U.S. Minimum Daily Wage | −0.320** | 0.153 | 0.330 | 0.258 |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | 0.035 | 0.029 | −0.166*** | 0.044 |
| Age-Squared | −0.001** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Female | −0.633*** | 0.168 | −1.235*** | 0.322 |
| Married | −0.010 | 0.125 | 0.330* | 0.197 |
| No. of Minors in Household | 0.014 | 0.035 | 0.031 | 0.052 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Years of Labor Force Experience | −0.016 | 0.011 | 0.055** | 0.021 |
| Years of Education | 0.020* | 0.012 | −0.030 | 0.021 |
| Prior U.S. Experience (Months) | --- | --- | ||
| Agricultural occupation | --- | --- | ||
| Unskilled occupation | 0.030 | 0.122 | 0.015 | 0.171 |
| Skilled occupation | 0.100 | 0.142 | −0.477* | 0.249 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | −0.074 | 0.242 | 0.242 | 0.297 |
| No. of U.S. Migrant Siblings | −0.006 | 0.055 | 0.285*** | 0.058 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | 0.295 | 0.606 | 0.875 | 0.565 |
| No. of U.S. migrant children | 0.017 | 0.133 | 0.135 | 0.151 |
| No. of U.S. Born children | −0.122 | 0.313 | −0.035 | 0.301 |
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.009* | 0.005 | 0.009 | 0.007 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | 0.088 | 0.178 | 0.245 | 0.246 |
| Home | −0.839*** | 0.106 | −0.111 | 0.162 |
| Business | −0.547*** | 0.150 | −0.820** | 0.266 |
| Region of Origin | ||||
| Historical | 0.134 | 0.108 | −0.191 | 0.169 |
| Community Size | ||||
| Metropolitan Area (100,000+) | --- | --- | ||
| Small Cities (10,000–99,999) | 0.319** | 0.138 | 0.742** | 0.242 |
| Town (2,501–9,999) | 0.067 | 0.132 | 0.887*** | 0.220 |
| Rural Villages (<=2,500) | 0.595*** | 0.147 | 0.786** | 0.250 |
| Intercept | −7 871*** | 1.561 | −12.850*** | 2.693 |
| Log Likelihood | −3719.975 | |||
| Likelihood Ratio Chi Squared | 878.710*** | |||
| Number of Person Years | 46,644 | |||
+
p=.10;
*
p<.05;
**
p<.01;
***
p<.001