Table 4.
Discrete time event history analysis predicting a first Mexican trip or an additional U.S. trip for persons whose first trip was to the United States (1990 to 2018)
| Variable | First Mexican Trip | Additional Undocumented Trip | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|||
| B | SE | B | SE | |
|
| ||||
| Mexican Context | ||||
| Municipal Homicide Rate | 0.032 | 0.041 | −0.143*** | 0.030 |
| Rate of GDP Growth (%) | −0.004 | 0.008 | −0.006 | 0.004 |
| Population Growth Rate (%) | 2.559 | 2.047 | 0.598 | 0.993 |
| Mexican Minimum Daily Wage | −0.667 | 0.500 | 0.729** | 0.235 |
| U.S. Context | ||||
| LN Border Patrol Budget | 0.517 | 2.719 | −2.144 | 1.498 |
| Rate of US Employment Growth | 0.131 | 0.126 | 0.006 | 0.057 |
| Residence / Work Visas (000) | 0.001 | 0.001 | −0.002*** | 0.000 |
| U.S. Minimum Daily Wage | −0.087 | 0.368 | 0.368* | 0.2032 |
| Demographic Background | ||||
| Age | −0.004 | 0.064 | −0.045 | 0.034 |
| Age-Squared | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Female | 0.472 | 0.393 | −0.398 | 0.277 |
| Married | −0.239 | 0.275 | 0.225 | 0.139 |
| No. of Minors in Household | −0.014 | 0.083 | 0.005 | 0.037 |
| Human Capital | ||||
| Years of Labor Force Experience | 0.027 | 0.032 | 0.015 | 0.016 |
| Years of Education | 0.001 | 0.033 | −0.023 | 0.016 |
| Months of Prior U.S. Experience | −0.002 | 0.002 | −0.005*** | 0.001 |
| Agricultural occupation | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| Unskilled occupation | 0.226 | 0.254 | −0.525*** | 0.104 |
| Skilled occupation | −0.408 | 0.451 | −0.683*** | 0.185 |
| Social Capital | ||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | −0.636 | 0.456 | −0.138 | 0.193 |
| No. of U.S. Migrant Siblings | −0.032 | 0.082 | 0.062* | 0.034 |
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | −0.031 | 0.378 | −0.824** | 0.269 |
| No. of U.S. migrant children | −0.205 | 0.215 | 0.031 | 0.094 |
| No. of U.S. Born children | 0.056 | 0.186 | −0.079 | 0.137 |
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.004 | 0.009 | −0.006 | 0.004 |
| Physical Capital | ||||
| Land | 0.182 | 0.378 | 0.007 | 0.145 |
| Home | −1.584*** | 0.265 | −0.128 | 0.109 |
| Business | 0.051 | 0.338 | −0.407** | 0.169 |
| Region of Origin | ||||
| Historical | 0.185 | 0.213 | −0.468*** | 0.105 |
| Community Size | ||||
| Metropolitan Area (100,000+) | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| Small Cities (10,000–99,999) | −0.708** | 0.349 | 0.688** | 0.229 |
| Town (2,501–9,999) | −0.850** | 0.336 | 0.447** | 0.227 |
| Rural Villages (<=2,500) | −0.791** | 0.393 | 0.724** | 0.234 |
| Intercept | −4.701 | 3.314 | −8.350*** | 1.667 |
| Log Likelihood | −2872.309 | |||
| Likelihood Ratio Chi Squared | 643.182*** | |||
| Number of Person Years | 30,847 | |||
+
p=.10;
*
p<.05;
**
p<.01;
***
p<.001