Table 3:
Results of pandemic surgical slowdown scenario analyses modelling alternative, hypothetical reductions in operating room resources
| Scenario | Mean wait time, d | Incremental increase in wait time,* d | Life-years lost per patient (95% CrI) | Life-years lost per population† (95% CrI) | 10-year survival, % | Difference in 10-year survival,* % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All patients | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 40 | 15 | – | 1539 (1349–1765) | 60.9 | −0.8 |
| PSS-2 | 37 | 12 | – | 1306 (1111–1425) | 61.0 | −0.7 |
| Breast | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 28 | 10 | 0.01 (0–0.02) | 44 (0–89) | 76.9 | −0.3 |
| PSS-2 | 26 | 8 | 0.01 (0–0.01) | 44 (0–44) | 76.9 | −0.3 |
| GI | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 33 | 12 | 0.07 (0.07–0.08) | 164 (164–188) | 50.8 | −0.6 |
| PSS-2 | 30 | 9 | 0.05 (0.04–0.06) | 117 (94–141) | 50.9 | −0.5 |
| GU | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 43 | 13 | 0.11 (0.10–0.12) | 651 (592–710) | 58.8 | −1.1 |
| PSS-2 | 41 | 11 | 0.10 (0.09–0.10) | 592 (533–592) | 59.2 | −0.7 |
| Gyne | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 43 | 17 | 0.09 (0.08–0.10) | 225 (200–250) | 66.2 | −1.4 |
| PSS-2 | 40 | 14 | 0.07 (0.06–0.08) | 175 (150–200) | 66.5 | −1.1 |
| HN | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 45 | 17 | 0.10 (0.09–0.12) | 157 (141–188) | 50.0 | −1.1 |
| PSS-2 | 42 | 14 | 0.08 (0.07–0.09) | 125 (110–141) | 50.2 | −0.9 |
| HPB | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 36 | 13 | 0.09 (0.08–0.11) | 70 (62–86) | 24.7 | −1.3 |
| PSS-2 | 33 | 10 | 0.08 (0.06–0.10) | 62 (46–78) | 24.8 | −1.2 |
| Lung | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 38 | 16 | 0.09 (0.07–0.10) | 111 (86–124) | 38.2 | −1.6 |
| PSS-2 | 35 | 13 | 0.06 (0.06–0.08) | 74 (74–99) | 39.0 | −0.8 |
| Prostate | ||||||
| PSS-1 | 73 | 21 | 0.09 (0.08–0.10) | 117 (104–130) | 77.5 | −0.8 |
| PSS-2 | 71 | 19 | 0.09 (0.08–0.10) | 117 (104–130) | 77.6 | −0.7 |
Note: CrI = credible interval, GI = gastrointestinal, GU = genitourinary, Gyne = gynecological, HN = head and neck, HPB = hepatobiliary, PSS-1 = pandemic surgical slowdown scenario of 60% operating room resources for first 6 months of pandemic; PSS-2 = pandemic surgical slowdown scenario of 60% operating room resources for the first 2 months of the pandemic and 75% resources for the next 4 months.
*
Compared with modelled prepandemic population with full operating room resources.
†
Life-years lost per population represented as the life-years lost per affected Ontario population.