Table 1.
Model probabilities
| Variable | Probability | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Neoadjuvant chemotherapy | ||
| Starting proportion of patients in NAC | 36%^ | Krabbe et al, 201518; Kulkarni et al, 20177 |
| Death on chemotherapy | 1.1% | Winquist et al, 200419 |
| Completing NAC | 90.3% | Zargar et al, 201520 |
| Adverse event | 36.7% | Neidersüss-Beke et al, 201721 |
| Progression on NAC | 3.0% | Galsky et al 201522 |
| HR for distant recurrence if completed NAC | 0.78 | ABC meta-analysis collaboration, 200523 |
| Radical cystectomy | ||
| Perioperative mortality | 2.4% | Wallace et al, 201824 |
| Postoperative complication (grade III/IV) | 68% (22%) | Parekh et al, 201825 |
| Complication on surveillance | 40% at 2 years* | Shimko et al, 201126 |
| Composite long-term complication | 10% over 1.1 years** | Shimko et al, 201126 |
| Distant recurrence | 38% at 5 years* | Nuhn et al, 201227 |
| Trimodal therapy | ||
| Complication on treatment (major) | 55% (15.5%) | Tunio et al, 201228 |
| Complete response | 75.3% | Fahmy et al, 201829 |
| Immediate salvage cystectomy | 31.8% | Calibrated value |
| Complication on surveillance | 39% over 31 months** | Efstathiou et al, 200930 |
| Major complication on surveillance | 9.58% over 22.1 months** | Efstathiou et al, 200930; Rodel et al, 200231 |
| Bladder cancer recurrence | 60% over 10 years | Calibrated value |
| Secondary malignancy | 0.7% over 75 months** | Zelefsky et al, 201232 |
| Distant recurrence on surveillance | 28.8% at 5 years | Calibrated value |
| Complication post-salvage cystectomy (grade III/IV) | 69% (16%) | Eswara et al, 201233 |
| Perioperative mortality from salvage cystectomy | 2.2% | Eswara et al, 201233 |
| Composite long-term complication post-salvage cystectomy | 20% at 1 year* | Knap et al, 200434 |
| Distant recurrence post-salvage cystectomy | ||
| Immediate salvage cystectomy | 22.4% at 2 years* | Eswara et al, 201233 |
| Delayed salvage cystectomy | 16.14% at 2 years* | Eswara et al, 201233 |
| Systemic therapy | ||
| Eligibility for first-line chemotherapy | 28% overall – age adjusted | Dash et al, 200615 |
| Survival on first-line cisplatin-based chemotherapy (carboplatin-based) | 50% over 14 months** (50% over 9.3 months**) | Von der Maase et al, 200535; De Santis et al, 201216 |
| Progression on first-line cisplatin-based chemotherapy (carboplatin-based) | 50% over 7.7 months** (50% over 5.8 months**) | Von der Maase et al, 200535; De Santis et al, 201216 |
| Receipt of second-line systemic therapy after progression on first-line | 39.2% | Wang et al, 201736 |
| Survival on second-line systemic therapy: | ||
| Pembrolizumab | 50% over 10.3 months** | Bellmunt et al, 201717 |
| Survival on palliative therapy | 50% over 5.3 months** | Smith et al, 201437 |
| Baseline mortality rates | ||
| Non-bladder-specific cancer-related mortality | 0.7% (adjusted based on gender & age) per year | Calibrated value |
| HR female | 0.78 | Williams et al, 201738 |
| HR age 70–74 | 1.08 | Williams et al, 201738 |
| HR age 75–79 | 1.30 | Williams et al, 201738 |
| HR age≥80 | 1.76 | Williams et al, 201738 |