TABLE 1.

Posterior probabilities placed on each of six doses during a Phase I trial using the CRM

Participant	Dose number
ID	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	0.244	0.167	0.185	0.166	0.119	0.118
2	0.173	0.173	0.217	0.201	0.138	0.098
3	0.122	0.170	0.241	0.234	0.151	0.082
4	0.086	0.161	0.260	0.263	0.161	0.068
5	0.061	0.149	0.275	0.291	0.168	0.056
6	0.043	0.135	0.286	0.317	0.172	0.046
7	0.030	0.122	0.294	0.341	0.175	0.038
8	0.021	0.109	0.299	0.364	0.176	0.031
9	0.015	0.096	0.302	0.385	0.176	0.026
10	0.011	0.085	0.304	0.405	0.174	0.021
11	0.008	0.074	0.304	0.424	0.173	0.017
12	0.005	0.065	0.303	0.442	0.170	0.014
13	0.004	0.057	0.301	0.460	0.167	0.011
14	0.003	0.049	0.299	0.476	0.164	0.009
15	0.002	0.043	0.295	0.491	0.161	0.008
16	0.001	0.037	0.292	0.506	0.157	0.006
17	0.001	0.032	0.287	0.521	0.153	0.005
18	0.001	0.028	0.283	0.534	0.150	0.004
19	0.000	0.024	0.278	0.547	0.146	0.003
20	0.000	0.021	0.273	0.560	0.142	0.003
21	0.000	0.018	0.268	0.572	0.139	0.002
22	0.000	0.016	0.263	0.584	0.135	0.002
23	0.000	0.014	0.258	0.595	0.131	0.002
24	0.000	0.012	0.253	0.606	0.128	0.001
25	0.000	0.010	0.248	0.616	0.125	0.001
26	0.000	0.009	0.243	0.626	0.121	0.001
Sum of
Rows 1–25	0.831	1.867	6.868	10.901	3.851	0.672

Note: Dose 4 is the true MTD and is indicated by the vertical double lines. The skeleton is π = (0.03, 0.11, 0.25, 0.42, 0.58, 0.71) and the vector of true DLT probabilities is α = (0.01, 0.03, 0.11, 0.25, 0.41, 0.57). Each row corresponds to the weight that would be produced after that subject’s data are incorporated into the posterior calculations. The dose with the largest weight would be assigned to the next subject. The sum of the first 25 rows provides information on the expected number of participants assigned to each dose in a trial.

Abbreviations: CRM, continual reassessment method; MTD, maximum tolerated dose.