Table 2.

Linear regression output for excess mortality per 100 000 individuals evaluated at 100 days, 300 days, 400 days and 500 days following the first confirmed case of COVID-19 within a country

	Excess mortality per 100 000 individuals at 100 days				Excess mortality per 100 000 individuals at 300 days				Excess mortality per 100 000 individuals at 400 days after adjusting for vaccination				Excess mortality per 100 000 individuals at 500 days after adjusting for vaccination
Explanatory variable	Coefficient	Robust SE	P value	Std. β	Coefficient	Robust SE	P value	Std. β	Coefficient	Robust SE	P value	Std. β	Coefficient	Robust SE	P value	Std. β
Sociodemographic
Island status	−50.967	−11.722	0.000	−0.281	−49.172	11.621	0.000	−0.271	−76.398	22.161	0.001	−0.277	−120.641	24.526	0.000	−0.341
Share of pop. >65 years	335.504	−120.189	0.006	0.342	339.927	121.548	0.006	0.347	447.300	209.383	0.035	0.306	518.959	278.995	0.066	0.268
Governance and politics
Corruption Perceptions Index	−1.909	−0.517	0.000	−0.536	−1.795	0.505	0.001	−0.504	−2.946	0.980	0.003	−0.547	−3.735	1.152	0.002	−0.528
Social cohesion	−0.709	−0.161	0.000	−0.349	−0.728	0.152	0.000	−0.358	−0.769	0.299	0.012	−0.248	−1.479	0.442	0.001	−0.370
(6.1) Political and security risk	1.088	−0.314	0.001	0.357	0.965	0.313	0.003	0.316	1.353	0.636	0.036	0.275	2.078	0.765	0.008	0.322
Political polarisation*	−6.928	−4.495	0.126	−0.142	−7.141	4.232	0.094	−0.146	−8.624	7.378	0.246	−0.118	−10.594	8.271	0.203	−0.108
Public health capacity
(2.4) Data integration between human, animal and environmental health sectors	0.175	−0.108	0.109	0.125	0.169	0.107	0.115	0.122	0.124	0.166	0.458	0.060	0.406	0.230	0.081	0.148
(1.6) Immunisation	0.383	−0.397	0.337	0.066	0.261	0.401	0.517	0.045	0.535	0.841	0.526	0.054	1.792	1.010	0.079	0.160
(4.3) Healthcare access	−0.281	−0.335	0.404	−0.058	−0.261	0.339	0.443	−0.054	0.015	0.521	0.976	0.002	−0.571	0.676	0.401	−0.055
Response
(3.7) Trade and travel restrictions	0.77	−0.272	0.006	0.154	0.725	0.259	0.006	0.145	1.095	0.431	0.013	0.139	0.912	0.603	0.134	0.091
Previous experience with SARS or MERS	−24.241	−10.387	0.021	−0.167	−24.901	10.542	0.020	−0.172	−29.250	20.168	0.150	−0.134	−14.213	24.254	0.559	−0.050
(3.2) Exercising response plans	0.32	−0.143	0.028	0.144	0.309	0.141	0.030	0.140	0.364	0.244	0.140	0.111	0.295	0.306	0.337	0.068
Stringency of interventions at day X	0.219	−0.231	0.346	0.060	0.523	0.269	0.055	0.126	0.055	0.557	0.922	0.009	0.572	0.567	0.315	0.074
Other
(6.4) Environmental risks	−1.529	−0.551	0.007	−0.227	−1.474	0.543	0.008	−0.218	−2.147	1.025	0.039	−0.209	−4.958	1.108	0.000	−0.374
Polarisation of society*	−10.66	−4.542	0.021	−0.217	−9.840	4.627	0.036	−0.200	−14.360	8.214	0.084	−0.192	−11.491	11.421	0.317	−0.117
(5.3) International commitments	0.345	−0.187	0.067	0.167	0.296	0.187	0.115	0.143	0.436	0.338	0.201	0.141	0.823	0.453	0.072	0.199
(5.4) JEE and PVS	−0.345	−0.237	0.148	−0.106	−0.296	0.235	0.211	−0.091	−0.399	0.424	0.349	−0.082	−0.170	0.536	0.752	−0.028
(5.6) Commitment to sharing of genetic and biological data and specimens	−0.65	−0.611	0.290	−0.088	0.557	0.584	0.343	−0.075	−0.372	0.922	0.687	−0.036	−0.762	1.086	0.484	−0.054
(5.1) IHR reporting compliance and disaster risk reduction	0.193	−0.196	0.326	−0.142	0.190	0.194	0.328	0.066	0.316	0.348	0.367	0.073	−0.064	0.468	0.892	−0.011
(2.3) Epidemiology workforce	−0.14	−0.181	0.439	−0.060	−0.115	0.184	0.533	−0.049	−0.396	0.318	0.216	−0.107	−0.561	0.380	0.143	−0.117
Fully vaccinated people per 100 individuals	–	–	–		–	–	–		−0.378	0.973	0.699	−0.023	0.143	0.799	0.858	0.019
Constant	102.88	65.894	0.121		98.572	65.871	0.137		147.662	109.237	0.180		271.6561	142.2674	0.059
Mean variance inflation factor	1.850				1.860					1.800				1.900
Observations	128				128					112				117
R-squared	0.588				0.597					0.534				0.566
Indicates statistical significance to p<0.05 level.
Indicates statistical significance to p<0.1 level.

The standardised beta compares the strength of the effect of each individual independent variable to the dependent variable. A negative beta value (represented in green) indicates fewer excess deaths and therefore a better response. A positive beta value (represented in orange) suggests that the variable had a detrimental effect on the quality of the response, correlating with a greater number of deaths. Yellow shading represents a result that is statistically significant to the p<0.05 level. Blue shading represents a result that is statistically significant to the p<0.10 level.

*Variables measuring political and societal polarisation were scored in a manner where a lower score indicates significant polarisation, and an increase in score represents a decrease in polarisation.

JEE, Joint External Evaluation; MERS, Middle East respiratory syndrome; PVS, Performance of Veterinary Services; SARS, Severe acute respiratory syndrome.