Table 6:

Comparison of Mortality Changes for Cardiovascular Diseases to Simulation Models, 1999–2012

Condition	Simulated total decline	IMPACT model Estimate	NHA - Treatment
Ischemic heart disease	−219,721	−129,568	−114,150
Congestive heart failure	−10,560	−41,901	−40,634
Cerebrovascular disease	−68,850	−47,488	−37,545
Cardiovascular risk factors	−2,496	—	−95,813
Total	−300,749	−218,957	−233,004

Notes: The simulated total decline in mortality is relative to a counterfactual where age-specific rates were assumed to be constant over time. Estimates from the IMPACT model are based on the most recent adaptation of the model (Ford et al., 2007; Ogata et al., 2019). The NHA estimate is from the analytic work underlying the national health accounts. It includes change in mortality attributed to medical care and not changes in the prevalence of the condition.